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Emergent BioSolutions Inc. is a life science company that addresses public health threats, with a portfolio that includes Narcan, a nasal spray for opioid overdoses. The company has let its margins deteriorate and used debt to finance them, eroding shareholder value. The new management team is focused on turning around the situation and could potentially unlock considerable value for new investors. I rate Emergent BioSolutions a "hold" due to the balance of turnaround potential and substantial investment risks.Emergent BioSolutions Inc. (NYSE:EBS) is a life science company that addresses public health threats. The company has developed its flagship product, Narcan, a nasal spray that helps people recover from opioid overdoses. EBS also presents a portfolio that includes infectious disease vaccines and treatments for anthrax, smallpox, botulism poisoning, and Ebola, producing a positive worldwide impact on health and safety. Unfortunately, EBS has let its margins deteriorate and used debt to finance them, which has eroded massive shareholder value over the years. The new management team is set on turning around this situation and could potentially unlock considerable value for new investors. But the stakes are high, so I think a “Hold” rating is appropriate for now. Fallen Angel: Business Overview Emergent BioSolutions is a life science company based in Gaithersburg, Maryland. It was founded in 1998 and specializes in developing treatments for public health threats like infectious diseases, chemical contamination, and opioid overdoses. EBS also provides bioservices to deliver Contract Development and Manufacturing Offerings [CDMO] using three technology platforms: A platform that involves mammalian cells for biologics production. Technologies related to plasma proteins for therapeutic applications. A platform to produce viral vectors to deliver genetic material to the cells.EBS commercial products include Naloxone, commercially known as Narcan, a nasal spray used to treat opioid overdoses. This drug is an inhibitor of the µ-opioid receptor and is one of EBS's most important products. Opioid medication helps manage pain but puts patients at risk of an accidental overdose. In the U.S., approximately 219 people die each day from an opioid overdose. The significant demand for Narcan in the middle of the widespread use and abuse of opioids has made this drug an EBS commercial success. Also, it has significantly impacted society, mitigating the consequences of this epidemic. This drug is sold over the counter [OTC] and reverses the effects of an opioid overdose, like respiratory failure or unresponsiveness. The product is broadly available for the public to ensure immediate access that may allow saving a life endangered by an opioid emergency.The company also offers vaccines such as BioThrax for anthrax, ACAM2000 for smallpox, and Ebanga for a Zaire strain of Ebola. Furthermore, EBS commercializes treatments for infectious illnesses, such as Anthraxil, an antitoxin to treat inhalational anthrax. Also, EBS’s Cyfendus, an antitoxin indicated for post-exposure to anthrax, or Raxibacumab, a human monoclonal antibody prescribed for therapy and preventing inhalational anthrax.Home page Seeking Alpha - Power to Investors Home Healthcare Emergent BioSolutions: High-Risk, High-Reward Strategic Turnaround May 10, 2024 12:35 PM ETEmergent BioSolutions Inc. (EBS) Stock36 Comments Myriam Alvarez profile picture Myriam Alvarez 2.16K Followers Summary Emergent BioSolutions Inc. is a life science company that addresses public health threats, with a portfolio that includes Narcan, a nasal spray for opioid overdoses. The company has let its margins deteriorate and used debt to finance them, eroding shareholder value. The new management team is focused on turning around the situation and could potentially unlock considerable value for new investors. I rate Emergent BioSolutions a "hold" due to the balance of turnaround potential and substantial investment risks. Unos pocos viales de naloxona dentro de una foto de archivo del kit Marvin Samuel Tolentino Pineda/iStock via Getty Images Emergent BioSolutions Inc. (NYSE:EBS) is a life science company that addresses public health threats. The company has developed its flagship product, Narcan, a nasal spray that helps people recover from opioid overdoses. EBS also presents a portfolio that includes infectious disease vaccines and treatments for anthrax, smallpox, botulism poisoning, and Ebola, producing a positive worldwide impact on health and safety. Unfortunately, EBS has let its margins deteriorate and used debt to finance them, which has eroded massive shareholder value over the years. The new management team is set on turning around this situation and could potentially unlock considerable value for new investors. But the stakes are high, so I think a “Hold” rating is appropriate for now. Fallen Angel: Business Overview Emergent BioSolutions is a life science company based in Gaithersburg, Maryland. It was founded in 1998 and specializes in developing treatments for public health threats like infectious diseases, chemical contamination, and opioid overdoses. EBS also provides bioservices to deliver Contract Development and Manufacturing Offerings [CDMO] using three technology platforms: A platform that involves mammalian cells for biologics production. Technologies related to plasma proteins for therapeutic applications. A platform to produce viral vectors to deliver genetic material to the cells. Source: 42nd Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference Presentation. January 2024. Source: 42nd Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference Presentation. January 2024. EBS commercial products include Naloxone, commercially known as Narcan, a nasal spray used to treat opioid overdoses. This drug is an inhibitor of the µ-opioid receptor and is one of EBS's most important products. Opioid medication helps manage pain but puts patients at risk of an accidental overdose. In the U.S., approximately 219 people die each day from an opioid overdose. The significant demand for Narcan in the middle of the widespread use and abuse of opioids has made this drug an EBS commercial success. Also, it has significantly impacted society, mitigating the consequences of this epidemic. This drug is sold over the counter [OTC] and reverses the effects of an opioid overdose, like respiratory failure or unresponsiveness. The product is broadly available for the public to ensure immediate access that may allow saving a life endangered by an opioid emergency. Source: 42nd Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference Presentation. January 2024. Source: 42nd Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference Presentation. January 2024. The company also offers vaccines such as BioThrax for anthrax, ACAM2000 for smallpox, and Ebanga for a Zaire strain of Ebola. Furthermore, EBS commercializes treatments for infectious illnesses, such as Anthraxil, an antitoxin to treat inhalational anthrax. Also, EBS’s Cyfendus, an antitoxin indicated for post-exposure to anthrax, or Raxibacumab, a human monoclonal antibody prescribed for therapy and preventing inhalational anthrax. Source: Q1 2024 Financial Results Update. May 2024. Source: Q1 2024 Financial Results Update. May 2024. The company also has Vaccinia Immune Globulin [VIG] to manage complications of smallpox vaccines. EBS’s Brincidofovir, known commercially as Tembexa, is an antiviral therapy for smallpox and Botulism antitoxin [BAT] for botulism poisoning. Lastly, EBS’s Reactive Skin Decontamination Lotion Kit [RSDL] is a treatment against chemical threats. Together, these comprise a wide-ranging and well-diversified IP portfolio. Restructuring and Expansion: Turnaround Efforts On May 2, EBS' stock rose 60% in the premarket after the company outperformed the financial estimates for Q1 2024 and announced its plans for restructuring, reducing 300 employees, eliminating 85 job openings, and closing the facilities of Baltimore-Bayview Drug Substance manufacturing and Rockville, Maryland Drug Product. These measures, when implemented, are expected to produce $80 million in annual savings. The company is focusing on debt management and reduction, optimizing operating performance. The new strategies and vision are noticeable under the direction of the newly appointed CEO, Joseph Papa, who emphasizes the necessity of a leaner operation. In the latest earnings call, EBS' executives presented the international expansion strategy as a growth driver, leveraging its innovative portfolio with the support of local partners worldwide. The company highlighted the importance of the Medical Countermeasures [MCM] area, incrementing guidance from $340 million to $490 million due to the EBS' role as a biodefense contractor capable of responding to the constant presence of global threats, including anthrax, smallpox, botulism, Ebola, and chemicals. On the other hand, the company anticipates competition for Narcan from generic products during 2024. Still, it expects that EBS's capabilities to serve the OTC and PIP channels and the strength and reputation of the Narcan brand will allow it to maintain the sales forecast at the predicted levels. According to the executives, the market is growing, and EBS' distribution capacities will enable it to take advantage of long-term opportunities. High-Risk, High-Reward: Valuation Analysis From a valuation perspective, EBS trades at a market cap of about $229.0 million. This stands out because we’re talking about a company with projected yearly revenues of $0.9 to $1.1 billion in 2024. However, the problem is that EBS’s margins are terrible, and this is what the market is undoubtedly discounting. Moreover, the company has approximately $909.2 million in total debt, with $458.4 million maturing in 2025. It’s unclear how EBS will handle such a massive debt repayment or how they will refinance it, and dilution is an ongoing risk for shareholders if they make an equity offering to handle thisNevertheless, looking at it as a whole, the business has an implied enterprise value of roughly $1.1 billion. In my analysis, if the company’s margins recovered to 1) management’s optimistic gross margins targets of 45% and 2) SG&A margins of about 20% in 2020 and 2021, then the stock does seem reasonably cheap. For context, this would imply a “blue skies” scenario where EBS makes 25% in EBIT margins. Moreover, interest payments represented about 8% of total revenues in 2023 and Q1 2024. Thus, in this “ideal” scenario, EBS would have about 17% of EBT margins, implying $153 to $187 million in EBT using management’s 2024 revenue guidance.EBIT matters because EV/EBIT is a commonly used valuation metric for indebted companies, and in the "ideal" scenario, EBS would have an EBIT of $225 to $275 million, implying an EV/EBIT ratio of 5.0 to 4.1, which is relatively undervalued. By comparison, EBS’s sector median EV/EBIT ratio is just 15.3, so there’s considerable potential upside in the "ideal" scenario. On the other hand, EBT matters because having an excess cash flow of $153 to $187 million after interest payments proves Emergent BioSolutions can be a going concern in the "ideal" scenario. Highly Speculative Risks The problem is that there are many assumptions to get EBS to that "ideal" scenario, and these are the underlying risks that new potential investors must accept. However, a larger entity could simply EBS altogether (including its debt) and make this turnaround itself because there’s a compelling opportunity if reaching the "ideal" scenario is feasible. So, at these prices, I think EBS is a potential takeover target, and to the extent management is successful in its turnaround efforts, then I believe the share price will surely follow. Yet, the opposite is equally true because EBS is highly speculative now, and there’s still no straightforward way to improve the company’s margins or tackle the debt problem without significant stock dilution or financing. So, as a potential shareholder, you are betting on the new CEO successfully managing the massive upcoming debt maturities while improving the underlying gross and EBIT margins. The stakes are high because if John Papa succeeds, much shareholder value could be unlocked. Likewise, failure can even lead to bankruptcy or a massively diluting equity offering, leading to substantial shareholder losses. Hence, I think the balanced approach is to rate EBS as a "Hold" in light of its turnaround opportunities and upside potential, as well as the significant risks and uncertainties present today."Hold" Rating: Conclusion Overall, EBS is a company that let its margins deteriorate significantly and relied on debt to finance them. Over time, this destroyed significant shareholder value, but the underlying IP portfolio and business are undoubtedly promising. EBS’s products should continue to generate substantial revenue for many years. If Emergent BioSolutions Inc. management succeeds in its turnaround efforts, investors willing to bet on this will receive a handsome reward. However, the opposite is also true, as failure could lead to substantial shareholder losses. Hence, I think EBS is a high-risk, high-reward "hold" now, but it is certainly worth adding to your watch list.

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