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The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 62.8 per cent
According to the CME ‘Fed Watch’, the probability that the Fed will keep the current rate unchanged by December is 37.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis points of interest rate cuts is 62.8%. The probability of keeping current rates unchanged by January next year is 28.4%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 56.8%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 14.8%.
According to the CME ‘Fed Watch’, the probability that the Fed will keep the current rate unchanged by December is 37.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis points of interest rate cuts is 62.8%. The probability of keeping current rates unchanged by January next year is 28.4%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 56.8%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 14.8%.
BTC breaks above $92,000
The market shows that BTC broke through $92,000, now at $92,107.94, 24-hour decline narrowed to 1.56%, the market fluctuations, please do a good job of risk control.
The market shows that BTC broke through $92,000, now at $92,107.94, 24-hour decline narrowed to 1.56%, the market fluctuations, please do a good job of risk control.
Fed sound bite: Fed minutes hint at cautious rate cuts if inflation stagnates
Federal Reserve officials at their meeting earlier this month discussed the possibility of slowing or pausing interest rate cuts if progress in lowering inflation stagnates, writes Nick Timiraos, ‘The Fed's Sounding Board’. According to Fed minutes released Tuesday, officials argued that if the economy performed in line with their expectations that inflation would continue to decline steadily, then ‘a gradual move toward a more neutral interest rate setting might be appropriate.’ All 19 officials involved in the discussion agreed to cut the Fed's benchmark short-term rate by 25 percentage points, the minutes showed. Some policymakers argued that the risk of a more pronounced slowdown in the job market or the economy had diminished since the September meeting. Many of them also said there was greater uncertainty about exactly where interest rates should be set in an economy that needs neither stimulus nor monetary restraint. Those considerations ‘made a gradual reduction in policy constraint appropriate’, the minutes said.
Federal Reserve officials at their meeting earlier this month discussed the possibility of slowing or pausing interest rate cuts if progress in lowering inflation stagnates, writes Nick Timiraos, ‘The Fed's Sounding Board’. According to Fed minutes released Tuesday, officials argued that if the economy performed in line with their expectations that inflation would continue to decline steadily, then ‘a gradual move toward a more neutral interest rate setting might be appropriate.’ All 19 officials involved in the discussion agreed to cut the Fed's benchmark short-term rate by 25 percentage points, the minutes showed. Some policymakers argued that the risk of a more pronounced slowdown in the job market or the economy had diminished since the September meeting. Many of them also said there was greater uncertainty about exactly where interest rates should be set in an economy that needs neither stimulus nor monetary restraint. Those considerations ‘made a gradual reduction in policy constraint appropriate’, the minutes said.
Bank of America expects S&P 500 to rise to 6,666 by 2025
Bank of America expects the S&P 500 to post another double-digit gain in 2025, but says there are better opportunities in individual stocks outside the benchmark index. In a report to clients on Tuesday, Savita Subramanian, the bank's head of U.S. equities and quantitative strategy, put the bank's target for the index at 6,666 by the end of 2025, about 11 per cent above Monday's closing level of 5,997.
Bank of America expects the S&P 500 to post another double-digit gain in 2025, but says there are better opportunities in individual stocks outside the benchmark index. In a report to clients on Tuesday, Savita Subramanian, the bank's head of U.S. equities and quantitative strategy, put the bank's target for the index at 6,666 by the end of 2025, about 11 per cent above Monday's closing level of 5,997.
The three major U.S. stock indices closed collectively higher
The three major U.S. stock indices closed collectively higher, with the Dow up 0.28 per cent, the Nasdaq up 0.63 per cent and the S&P 500 up 0.57 per cent.
The three major U.S. stock indices closed collectively higher, with the Dow up 0.28 per cent, the Nasdaq up 0.63 per cent and the S&P 500 up 0.57 per cent.
Standard Chartered analyst: Short-term bottom for BTC in $85,000 to $88,700 range
Geoff Kendrick, Head of Global Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, attributes the recent market turmoil, which included a drop in Bitcoin and a rise in long-term US Treasuries, to a decline in the US Treasury term premium. The term premium is the extra return investors demand for holding long-term bonds rather than rolling over short-term bonds. Since Bitcoin is often seen as a hedge against instability in traditional financial markets, increased confidence in U.S. Treasuries could diminish Bitcoin's appeal in the short term, leading to a decline in its price. Kendrick said, ‘MicroStrategy's purchases show no signs of slowing down and they are unlikely to sell, but the average purchase price of $88,700 for ETFs and MSTR since the election could be a short-term bottom, with bitcoin likely to consolidate in the $85,000 to $88,700 range and then resume its upward trajectory.’
Geoff Kendrick, Head of Global Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, attributes the recent market turmoil, which included a drop in Bitcoin and a rise in long-term US Treasuries, to a decline in the US Treasury term premium. The term premium is the extra return investors demand for holding long-term bonds rather than rolling over short-term bonds. Since Bitcoin is often seen as a hedge against instability in traditional financial markets, increased confidence in U.S. Treasuries could diminish Bitcoin's appeal in the short term, leading to a decline in its price. Kendrick said, ‘MicroStrategy's purchases show no signs of slowing down and they are unlikely to sell, but the average purchase price of $88,700 for ETFs and MSTR since the election could be a short-term bottom, with bitcoin likely to consolidate in the $85,000 to $88,700 range and then resume its upward trajectory.’
BTC falls below $91,500
The market shows that BTC fell below $91,500 and is now at $91,488, down 3.61% in 24 hours, the market fluctuates a lot, please do a good job of risk control.
The market shows that BTC fell below $91,500 and is now at $91,488, down 3.61% in 24 hours, the market fluctuates a lot, please do a good job of risk control.
NYT: Fed Retains Option to Cut Rates
According to the New York Times, Federal Reserve minutes show that when Fed officials cut interest rates at a meeting this month, they avoided explicitly hinting at what might happen next. The minutes released on Tuesday provided little signal about whether Fed officials are likely to cut rates at their December meeting or how much they might cut in 2025. Economic data has been stronger than economists had expected in recent months. The job market, which had been showing signs of cooling, has stabilised. In light of this, some economists have been wondering if the Fed could pause in cutting rates at its upcoming meeting. But the minutes of the November meeting provided little clear guidance, except to say that over time, interest rates ‘gradually’ lower ‘may be appropriate.’
According to the New York Times, Federal Reserve minutes show that when Fed officials cut interest rates at a meeting this month, they avoided explicitly hinting at what might happen next. The minutes released on Tuesday provided little signal about whether Fed officials are likely to cut rates at their December meeting or how much they might cut in 2025. Economic data has been stronger than economists had expected in recent months. The job market, which had been showing signs of cooling, has stabilised. In light of this, some economists have been wondering if the Fed could pause in cutting rates at its upcoming meeting. But the minutes of the November meeting provided little clear guidance, except to say that over time, interest rates ‘gradually’ lower ‘may be appropriate.’
Traders expect about 60% chance of Fed rate cut in December
Analyst Adam Button said the Fed minutes sent a consistent message about gradual policy adjustments, with only ‘some’ officials talking about a pause. According to CME Watch data, traders expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at next month's meeting is 59.6 per cent, up from 52.3 per cent on Monday, but little changed from 58.9 per cent a week ago.
Analyst Adam Button said the Fed minutes sent a consistent message about gradual policy adjustments, with only ‘some’ officials talking about a pause. According to CME Watch data, traders expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at next month's meeting is 59.6 per cent, up from 52.3 per cent on Monday, but little changed from 58.9 per cent a week ago.
BTC falls below $92,500
The market shows that BTC fell below $92,500 and is now at $92,448, a 24-hour drop of 3.26%, the market fluctuates, please do a good job of risk control.
The market shows that BTC fell below $92,500 and is now at $92,448, a 24-hour drop of 3.26%, the market fluctuates, please do a good job of risk control.
