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An analyst for the market intelligence platform CryptoQuant has predicted that bitcoin (BTC) could experience the “sell in May effect” in the coming months, even as the bull cycle remains unfinished. According to the report by Oinonen, BTC is expected to have a sideways summer and experience elevated price levels by the last quarter of the year following the sell in May effect. The Sell in May Effect The sell in May effect is a concept that refers to the seasonality of traditional finance. The saying is based on the idea that stock market returns are often higher from November to April compared to May through October. The investment strategy dates back centuries and suggests that stocks perform weaker from May to October; hence, investors should sell their holdings around May and reinvest around October. The adage dates back centuries and postulates that the best six months of the year for stocks are recorded from November through April, suggesting that investors should sell in May and wait until October to buy again. While this saying has applied to the stock market majorly, a 2024 report by the cryptocurrency research firm K33 revealed that buying BTC in October and selling in April has accrued cumulative returns of 1,449% between 2019 and 2023, while buying in May and selling in September has recorded a negative return of -29% over the same period. Bitcoin Still Has More Upside In line with the postulation of the sell-in-May effect, Oinonen insisted that BTC will see a rally in price by the last quarter of the year. The market has seen a repeat of the positive Q4 seasonality in 2013, 2016, 2017, 2020, 2021, 2023, and 2024. Also, the CryptoQuant analyst noted that BTC may not experience a deeper price correction in multiple months or even a year. However, macro events and geopolitical tensions could significantly affect risk-on assets, including the leading cryptocurrency. Meanwhile, Oinonen explained that BTC is currently consolidating around the $97,000 level after reaching an all-time high of $109,000 in January. The possibility of a technical correction still lingers, but the halving cycle is far from over. Compared to the previous such cycle, where BTC surged 686% between May 11, 2020, and November 8, 2021, the cryptocurrency has only climbed 63% since the latest halving on April 20, 2024. Oinonen said Bitcoin’s power-law model and law of diminishing returns suggest moderate price performance in the future; however, the 63% rally indicates plenty of upside and an unfinished cycle. The post Bitcoin to See ‘Sell in May Effect’ in Coming Months: CryptoQuant appeared first on CryptoPotato.

Amidst market-wide FUD dragging many coins below their post-election highs, Solana [SOL] is facing an intense sell-off, plunging to a three-month low. Is this a temporary correction, or are investors losing conviction in its long-term potential? At press time, SOL was down 40% from its post-election peak of $274, amid a market-wide correction that has wiped out nearly $450 billion from crypto valuations since the new year. While most high-cap assets struggle below key psychological levels due to demand-supply imbalance, SOL faces even stronger selling pressure. Solana has lost over $40 billion in market capitalization, deviating from its historically strong Q1 trend, where it typically reclaims key resistance levels to set new highs. However, unlike previous cycles, SOL has formed three consecutive lower lows since its peak, with no significant “dip-buying” to absorb the sell pressure. If $160 doesn’t flip into solid support, SOL risks a deeper correction toward $130, having retraced to its election day opening price. This puts long-term HODLers in control, as their conviction will be crucial for Solana’s recovery. Over 22% of SOL’s supply is held by long-term holders (6-12 months), with the chart showing little fluctuation in their holdings. This steady accumulation signals strong conviction in Solana’s long-term potential. However, with SOL nearly doubling in value over the past six months, the 6-12 month holder cohort remains a key metric to watch for potential shifts in market sentiment. SOL has bounced 2% off its three-month low, with an 8% rise in trading volume signaling renewed buying at discounted levels. However, it remains too early to confirm $160 as a firm bottom. The next few days will be critical for Solana’s price structure. If bulls fail to defend this fourth support level, weakening HODLing sentiment among 6-12 month LTHs could trigger panic selling, exposing Solana to a deeper retracement toward its previous support at $130. $SOL

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Recent derivatives data indicates a resurgence in investor optimism as traders prepare for a potential price recovery of Ethereum (ETH) ahead of the April Pectra upgrade. Meanwhile, Solana is experiencing downward price pressure. Nick Forster, founder of Derive.xyz, noted that Ethereum's seven-day implied volatility (IV) stands at 66%, comparable to its six-month IV, while Bitcoin's IV is significantly lower. Forster predicts a 30% chance of Ethereum's price surpassing $3,000 by the end of this quarter, an increase from last week's 28% probability.$ETH $SOL

Amidst market-wide FUD dragging many coins below their post-election highs, Solana [SOL] is facing an intense sell-off, plunging to a three-month low. Is this a temporary correction, or are investors losing conviction in its long-term potential? At press time, SOL was down 40% from its post-election peak of $274, amid a market-wide correction that has wiped out nearly $450 billion from crypto valuations since the new year. While most high-cap assets struggle below key psychological levels due to demand-supply imbalance, SOL faces even stronger selling pressure. Solana has lost over $40 billion in market capitalization, deviating from its historically strong Q1 trend, where it typically reclaims key resistance levels to set new highs. However, unlike previous cycles, SOL has formed three consecutive lower lows since its peak, with no significant “dip-buying” to absorb the sell pressure. If $160 doesn’t flip into solid support, SOL risks a deeper correction toward $130, having retraced to its election day opening price. This puts long-term HODLers in control, as their conviction will be crucial for Solana’s recovery. Over 22% of SOL’s supply is held by long-term holders (6-12 months), with the chart showing little fluctuation in their holdings. This steady accumulation signals strong conviction in Solana’s long-term potential. However, with SOL nearly doubling in value over the past six months, the 6-12 month holder cohort remains a key metric to watch for potential shifts in market sentiment. SOL has bounced 2% off its three-month low, with an 8% rise in trading volume signaling renewed buying at discounted levels. However, it remains too early to confirm $160 as a firm bottom. The next few days will be critical for Solana’s price structure. If bulls fail to defend this fourth support level, weakening HODLing sentiment among 6-12 month LTHs could trigger panic selling, exposing Solana to a deeper retracement toward its previous support at $130. $SOL