Refinable priceFINE

In a speech delivered today at the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum in New York City, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the central bank’s cautious approach amid prevailing economic uncertainties. Powell reiterated the Federal Reserve’s readiness to maintain current interest rates, adopting a “wait and see” stance as it monitors the impacts of recent policy changes and economic indicators. “We do not need to be in a hurry, and are well positioned to wait for greater clarity,” he said. Powell highlighted the robustness of the U.S. labor market, noting that employers added 151,000 jobs in February, bringing the average monthly job gains to 191,000 since September. The unemployment rate edged up slightly to 4.1%, remaining within a narrow range between 3.9% and 4.2% over the past year. BREAKING: Fed's Powell: The economy is fine; it doesn't need us to do anything. He observed that wage growth has moderated to a more sustainable pace, aligning labor supply and demand, thereby reducing inflationary pressures from the labor market. “With wage growth moderating and labor supply and demand having moved into better balance, the labor market is not a significant source of inflationary pressure,” he said. Addressing inflation , Powell noted a significant decline from its mid-2022 peak above 7% to 2.5% as of January. He cautioned that recent readings remain somewhat above the Federal Reserve’s 2% objective. “The path to sustainably returning inflation to our target has been bumpy, and we expect that to continue,” Powell said. He emphasized the importance of not overreacting to short-term fluctuations and reiterated the central bank’s commitment to closely monitoring inflation trends to ensure they align with long-term goals. “Inflation can be volatile month-to-month, and we do not overreact to one or two readings that are higher or lower than anticipated,” he said. Powell touched on recent trade policies, including the Trump administration’s announcements and subsequent delays on steep import tariffs affecting trading partners such as Mexico, Canada, and China. These policy shifts have contributed to market volatility and have complicated the economic outlook. Powell emphasized the need for clarity in these areas before making any adjustments to monetary policy, stating that the central bank is well-positioned to wait for greater clarity on the economic outlook. Given these factors, Powell indicated that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep its key interest rate unchanged in the coming months. The central bank had previously cut the benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to a range of 4.25% to 4.5% in late 2024 and maintained this policy in January. Crypto has responded to Powell’s comments with cautious optimism. Investors appear reassured by the Federal Reserve’s patient approach, though concerns about potential stagflation and Trump’s ongoing crypto summit persist. Bitcoin is currently trading at $88,300.

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BlackRock CEO Larry Fink expects market volatility and elevated inflation in 2025 but remains bullish about long-term growth opportunities, projecting a “big economic boom” driven by advancements in science and technology. Speaking today at the RBC Capital Markets Global Financial Institutions Conference, Fink said that this year would be a “rocky” year as markets adjust to trade tensions and policy shifts. He noted that the “next six months” will be marked by increased market volatility. “In the next six months, I think we’re going to have a lot of volatility and volatility is creeping up quite considerably,” he said. Yet, Fink anticipates the country will overcome the current social and economic challenges. “The world’s fine. I mean, a lot of noise. We’ll get beyond — we’ll get by this,” Fink said. “All of that is going to be just a reorientation. And ultimately, we’ve — we find ways of fixing it. But in the short run, we’re going to have elevated inflation,” he said. Fink urged investors to buy during the dips, emphasizing his confidence in the enduring strength of the US capital markets. “For long-term investors, if there’s a big dip, good, good time to buy and I truly believe that. I believe we’re getting set up for a big economic boom,” Fink said, anticipating the boom will largely be driven by new technologies and science. Addressing the growing anxiety surrounding tariffs and potential deportations, Fink said they could cause immediate economic disruptions they could cause. However, despite the current climate of trade uncertainty, he stays optimistic about the possibility of a positive outcome, suggesting a potential trade agreement between the US and China. “We expect in the short run volatility, we expect elevated inflation, moderation of the economy in the short run. But over the course of three quarters, four quarters, I think we’re going to be resuming a pretty good trajectory,” he noted. Discussing AI, Fink highlighted the potential of the technology to drive innovation, efficiency, and ultimately, deflation. “The Generative AI is going to transform the science and all the sciences so rapidly,” he said. The CEO pointed out that AI implementation is currently expensive, limiting its accessibility to large corporations. However, he expressed optimism that the cost of AI models will decrease, allowing for wider adoption and “democratization” of the technology. Fink believes that the US technology sector, driven by AI, will be a major driver of stock market growth and investment opportunities over the next five years. Fink also noted the rapid evolution of robotics, where AI and visual technology are enabling robots to perform increasingly complex tasks. He contrasted older, code-driven robots with new AI-powered machines capable of delicate and precise actions. “The ability to overlay AI with robotics with visual technology is going to be transformational,” Fink said. “And that’s why when you think about so many functions and so many things, it will be ultimately very deflationary.”

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