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VIPBitget VIP Weekly Research Insights

Global markets are experiencing multiple transformative catalysts supporting the recovery of risk assets. For instance, Trump has revived his proposal to distribute $2000 "tariff dividend" checks to every American using tariff revenues. While the plan faces hurdles such as congressional approval and inflationary concerns, it has already boosted consumer confidence and is expected to inject trillions of dollars in liquidity, benefitting high-growth technology sectors. Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown has reached a record 41 days. With the Senate having reached an agreement, it's expected to end on November 11—potentially triggering a renewed fiscal injection of tens of billions of dollars and a V-shaped rebound similar to past shutdown recoveries. Market expectations for a rate cut at the Federal Reserve's December FOMC meeting are also rising, with a 62.6% probability priced in for a 25-basis-point cut. Some Trump-backed officials even advocate for a 50-basis-point reduction, which would extend the easing cycle and further stimulate investment in crypto and AI infrastructure. Together, these factors may drive a 5–10% rebound in total crypto market capitalization, creating a window of opportunity for allocation to high-quality projects.

VIPBitget VIP Weekly Research Insights

After the largest liquidation in history on October 11, market liquidity took a severe hit, with reports suggesting that many mid- and long-tail market makers suffered heavy losses. Consequently, it may take considerable time for liquidity conditions to normalize. The mass liquidation was primarily triggered by Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff hike on China, followed by a chain reaction from the USDe depegging incident. As a result, the market has likely entered oversold territory.

VIPBitget VIP Weekly Research Insights

As the crypto market recovers in 2025, Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) firms and protocol token buybacks are drawing increasing attention. DAT refers to public companies accumulating crypto assets as part of their treasury. This model enhances shareholder returns through yield and price appreciation, while avoiding the direct risks of holding crypto. Similar to an ETF but more active, DAT structures can generate additional income via staking or lending, driving NAV growth. Protocol token buybacks, such as those seen with HYPE, LINK, and ENA, use protocol revenues to automatically repurchase and burn tokens. This reduces circulating supply and creates a deflationary effect. Key drivers for upside include institutional capital inflows and potential Fed rate cuts, which would stimulate risk assets. Combined with buyback mechanisms that reinforce value capture, these assets are well-positioned to lead in the next market rebound.

VIPBitget VIP Weekly Research Insights

Ethereum and its ecosystem are set to remain in the spotlight in 2025, driven by accelerating institutional adoption and network upgrades. As the world's leading smart contract platform, ETH has benefited from billions of dollars in ETF inflows, fueling a steady price climb. Potential upside catalysts include the Pectra upgrade to enhance performance, large-scale tokenization of real-world assets (RWA), explosive growth in Layer 2 solutions such as Base, and the reduction in circulating supply of the burn mechanism. Ecosystem tokens like Lido (the leader in liquid staking) and Ethena (an innovator in synthetic stablecoins) are also poised to benefit. Institutional participation from major players like BlackRock further boosts demand for DeFi and staking products. As a result, the overall market cap of the ecosystem is expected to continue growing, attracting increasing amounts of mainstream capital.