Magic Eden 價格ME

Some more thoughts on the current situation: (No macro expert just stating some observations and thoughts). 1. $BTC with a relatively good performance during the past 24 hours and past few weeks in general. (Compared to stocks and how it acted in the past). 2. Market initially rallied after thinking there was “just” a 10% flat tariff worldwide. Seems like that would be a good outcome still if it were to negotiated down to that point. 3. Many of the Reciprocal Tariffs are so high they make little sense. This tells me that these are not planned to be in place long term at all and negotiations/deal-making will probably happen fast. A lot of it is still a big show and if Trump can claim victory with a list of dozens of countries that have already dropped their tariffs towards the US by the next 1-2 weeks, he’ll gladly take that. Even if these make little to no actual change. The narrative and show of power is what matters. 4. Think the larger countries will be the most stubborn as they can hold on for a while and got more to negotiate for. This will still create this sense of uncertainty and headwind in the short term. Expecting retaliations by EU/China etc. The smaller countries hit with 30%+ tariffs are likely to give in first as they got the most to lose. 5. Dollar going down a lot which should help in the end with cheaper imported goods by from the US by other counties. 6. BTC looks willing to rally but being held down by macro uncertainty and stock weakness. Look for signs of outperformance. Market can climb the wall of worry even with potential bearish catalysts ahead. Going to be an interesting week. Watch for potential retaliations & deals being made. With the deadlines on the tariffs being implemented nearing and the entire world being involved, I think we’ll see plenty of news this week.

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We now have a lot of match up in how the $BTC and SPX moves have formed with both of them showing properties of what could be a choppy wave 4. This would predict we see a period of panic selling (likely driven by news) and then we enter into the ABC correction. Now ... by the book, if a bigger bear move is happening the high should now be in. If there's to be a big bull trap it'll be an ABC to the 76 retracement and then there'll be a sharp second down leg - surpassing the first. By the way things actually are, we have to be wary of the butterfly bull trap. This would look and act identical to a 76 reversal up to a certain point and then it would make a hyper parabolic spike - which would briefly trade at new highs before setting up a big rug-pull event. I explained in a previous post 70K was a critical make or break area. Upon further swing development I still think that's broadly correct but a false breakout could go as far as 65K. If we get a sharp period of capitulation here I'll be very careful with my shorts. Trailing stops aggressively. And likely be very bullish around 65K. So long as I can get reasonable stop entries (breaking of this area could mean an out and out waterfall - would not be a fun knife catch if you tried to hold it). I kinda have a feeling the worst for the $BTC drop might be directly ahead of us, but that is also likely the low for the foreseeable future. Contingent on there being the sharp drop (ideally with news to explain it) and me seeing things I like in the 65K zone I can see me being extremely bullish on this in the coming month.

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