Usual PriceUSUAL

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There is a lot of debate on what SPX will do next. The rally that we just had was not that difficult to anticipate, as the market will often get a big bounce after 20-21% drawdowns (especially in short periods of time). The market also will frequently bounce after sweeping lows from a year before (I showed this on youtube back in March/April). I was also clear to expect SPX weakness from Feb OPEX to early-April (as I mentioned many times), but that renewed strength should come in Q2. Well here we are - that all played out. So now what? There has been a lot of debate on this platform as to what lies ahead. Now #SPX is at a crossroads and the short-term direction becomes a little less clear. You can see two analogs below that match 2025 pretty well so far (1980 and 2001), so it's easy if you are in either camp (bear or bull) to provide the analog as evidence that backs your bias. The thesis for either path is actually somewhat believable: 1) The Bear Case The bear case is fairly straightforward: The unemployment rate has been trending up for the last couple of years. The market was looking for a reason to kick off the downturn, and uncertainty from the new administration as it relates to tariffs was the perfect event to swing momentum in the other direction. There has been a huge bounce by SPX, seemingly following announcements of trade deals, but tariffs are still in effect and even tariff pauses do not actually mean pauses (they just mean less tariffs than previously announced). Thus, this phase could simply be the "return to normal" before we have to face the music of rising unemployment and potentially rising inflation once tariffs make their way to the consumer. The reason this could be detrimental is because tariff uncertainty as it relates to inflation could cause the Fed to not cut rates as early as they should, which might increase the chances of a hard landing. Since we had negative GDP in Q1 2025, it would seem reasonable to get a rate cut under normal circumstances (especially with headline inflation at 2.3%). But the Fed is and will likely continue to not cut rates until it becomes more clear how tariffs will affect the inflation data. If the FFR is > r* (the neutral rate), then the economy will continue to slow down. If there is a spike in inflation, the Fed's hands could be tied to come to the rescue of rising unemployment. If this scenario is to play out, then one would expect SPX would make a lower high in May (June at the latest) and put in a new low by Aug/Sep. 2) The bull case The bull case is also straightforward. Markets panicked and had a tariff tantrum over higher than anticipated tariffs. But now that many have been reduced, business can continue as usual. Prices of goods and services might go up but if the consumer is not tapped out, then the economy could simply continue churning along for a while as rising costs of companies just get passed to the consumer (like they always do). A new high by SPX would be more suggestive that the market has shrugged off the tariffs and is no longer that concerned about them. After all, the market has shrugged off plenty of things over the years. This would once again speak to the resilience of the US economy. In that case, it would also make sense for the long end of the yield curve to go higher as the implication would be that the economy is still doing ok, (the long end could also go up in the bear case though too with inflation expectations going through the roof). So like I said, the market is at a crossroads. Buying stocks in early April was not the hard part. The hard part is what comes next. The path for the summer is still open for debate. I think the path could be partially decided on the next macro data points (unemployment rate and inflation next month). If tariffs start to show up in the inflation data, then it would likely put the SPX rally on pause. Or if the unemployment rate trends up this summer, it could also put the rally on pause. If both inflation and the unemployment rate remain low, then the market momentum would likely continue. The good news is that market tops usually take a long time to play out, which is why panic selling early April was never a good idea. It's one of those things where if you look at the market in a month and SPX has still not put in a new high, then it may be time to start bracing for a pullback into Q3. I'll probably reference this post in a few weeks and by that point it will probably be more obvious which path SPX is following. Even in the bear case, stocks would likely only slowly go lower after failing to put in a higher high, which would give people time to make decisions. The next period of major weakness in stocks is likely Aug/Sep. If SPX puts in a higher high soon then Aug/Sep weakness would likely be a higher low. If SPX puts in a lower higher here, then the weakness in Aug/Sep would likely be a lower low (or double bottom). I do think DXY will go to 103-104 in the short-term, but I do not anticipate a big move up by DXY until 2026.

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