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The American economy is going through a turbulent phase. Between rising inflation and a marked slowdown in growth, a long-forgotten specter resurfaces: stagflation. This phenomenon, which combines economic stagnation and rising prices, recalls the crises of the 1970s. Today, Donald Trump’s new tariff policies reignite fears of a return to that era when growth was at a standstill and purchasing power was eroding rapidly. The American president’s decision to impose heavy taxes on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada raises many questions about its real effects on the economy. As the Federal Reserve is pressed into a corner, markets are faltering, and businesses are concerned about the repercussions on their profitability. The Trump administration has decided to toughen its stance on imports, with increases in customs tariffs hitting several major trading partners hard. Indeed, the president announced a 25 % increase on products from Mexico and Canada, as well as a doubling of the customs duties on Chinese imports, now raised to 20 %. “We will finally restore trade balance and protect our domestic industries,” he declared during a press conference at the White House. But on the ground, the impact is already being felt. According to a report from the Department of Commerce, household consumption fell in January, marking its steepest decline in nearly four years. At the same time, producer prices have risen, further fueling inflation. Companies are starting to sound the alarm: Target, one of the largest retailers in the country, has warned that its margins will be “significantly impacted” by the rise in import costs. In the manufacturing sector, the ISM index shows that industrial activity is slowing down, with a drop in new orders and a surge in raw material costs. As the effects of tariffs start to weigh on the real economy, the financial markets are not immune. Since the beginning of March, the Dow Jones has lost 4.5 %, erasing the gains achieved after Trump’s reelection last November. This downward movement reflects the growing distrust of investors, who fear that the American economy may become trapped in a negative spiral of inflation and stagnation. “We are witnessing a collapse in consumer confidence and a sharp rise in uncertainty,” explains Mark Hackett, chief strategist at Nationwide. Investors are reacting and are turning massively to government bonds, resulting in a drop in the yield on the 10-year Treasury to 4.2 %. This phenomenon, known as an inverted yield curve, is historically a precursor signal of recession. Meanwhile, other alternative assets are benefiting from this instability: gold and bitcoin are both rising, confirming their status as safe havens in times of crisis. Thus, the question is no longer whether the economy will slow down, but rather at what speed and with what intensity. The acceleration of inflation combined with a slowdown in growth places the Federal Reserve in a strategic deadlock. Should it lower its rates to restart activity, risking exacerbating inflation? Or conversely, maintain them at a high level, potentially worsening economic slowdown? A delicate decision that recalls the difficult choices of the 1970s when the Fed ultimately sacrificed growth to break inflation. In the meantime, businesses, investors, and consumers remain suspended over the next economic indicators. If stagflation were to become established, it could mark a turning point in American monetary and fiscal policy. But beyond the United States, this uncertainty could well spread to global markets, creating a new cycle of instability.

The White House held its first-ever “crypto summit” on Friday, gathering top execs from digital asset firms to chat about how the Trump administration plans to undo the Biden administration’s regulatory crackdown on crypto. But the attendees reportedly left feeling deflated. Here’s where prices stand over the past 24 hours: The event came three days after Trump’s first address to Congress since returning to office, in which he spouted several statements, including one about the economy that doesn’t quite align with the facts . “As you know, we inherited an economic disaster and an inflation crisis from the previous administration,” Trump stated . Gross Domestic Product: Under Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, real GDP growth averaged around 3.4% over the first three years, including a 2.5% growth in 2023. Compare that to Trump’s first term: Not counting the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020-, the economy experienced an average annual real GDP growth of approximately 2.5%. By 2020, the pandemic led to a significant contraction and resulted in an overall average annual growth rate of about 1.6% for Trump’s term. Inflation: Trump has claimed that the U.S. has faced “the worst inflation we’ve ever had.” However, that’s inaccurate – inflation last exceeded 9% in 1981, and has been much higher at various points throughout U.S. history. Indeed, prices surged considerably during the initial two years of Biden’s presidency, reaching a high of 9.1% in June 2022. By December 2024, the annual inflation rate was 2.9% . S&P 500 Performance: Since Biden’s inauguration on Jan. 20, 2021, the S&P 500 has risen by approximately 50%, despite a 19% drop in 2022 due to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes aimed at combating inflation. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Milestones: The DJIA surpassed several significant milestones during Biden’s tenure, including: Under Trump presently, consumer confidence is down ; stocks just suffered their worst week in six months (h/t Forbes); and inflation worsened . As for crypto, it’s still a mystery how Trump plans to pay for the digital asset stockpile that’s currently in the works . Will he raise taxes? We’re told there would be “no incremental costs on American taxpayers.” It’s no wonder why both Republicans and Democrats are worried. See below. 🟡 NEW: Republicans and Democrats who hope to legitimize crypto by pushing regulatory overhauls through Congress are scrambling to come to terms with Trump’s proposal to create a US "strategic reserve" of digital assets. Private-sector supporters are raising their own concerns… pic.twitter.com/lXqkPj8BD3 It’s worth noting that the crypto summit on March 7 comes less than two months after Trump and some of his family members launched their own memecoins. The big guns of crypto (i.e., Michael Saylor, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev) attended. It was a clear shift in attitude compared to the Biden era, when the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) drew the ire of those in the industry who felt that the Gary Gensler-led crackdowns were unfair. After all, not everyone in the industry was a scammer (although 2024 had plenty of rug pulls ). Today, these honchos have Trump whose federal government — according to Axios’ Felix Salmon and Zachary Basu — has become “the primary driver of the chaos.” What could go wrong?

XRP has managed to overturn its recent downtrend, recording positive gains across all the notable trading periods. According to our market data, the asset has surged by 5.5% in the last 24 hours, 9% in the last seven days, 3.8% in the last 30 days, 3.2% in the last 90 days, and 6.8% from year to date. Its market cap has made a quick rebound to $143 billion as $9.4 billion changes hands at press time. Looking into its on-chain activities , we found that the current trend aligns with investors’ confidence as Binance’s XRP reserves drastically drop. Fascinatingly, this appears to be a sharp turn from the recent increase of Binance’s XRP reserve from 2.72 billion to 2.90 billion, as outlined in our recent blog post. While this scenario is usually linked to the movement of assets to cold storage, it is historically accompanied by a tightening supply and subsequent price surges. Confirming this trend, analyst Ali Martinez has also shared data that shows that XRP active addresses have surged by a whopping 620% in just a week. Specifically, the numbers increased from 74,589 to 462,650. Meanwhile, the XRP Ledger has also recorded a 24% surge in the number of accounts since early 2024. According to data, the network has 6.2 million accounts, a fair surge from the previous 5 million accounts. Joining the XRP discussion, a popular finance author called Linda Jones has urged investors to make a move while the asset is undergoing a major correction. It is important to note that XRP dropped from $2.99 to $2.20 between March 3 and March 4. According to analyst Ali Martinez, the asset could extend its correction to $1 in a 58% fall from the current level. Per his observation, XRP is forming a head-and-shoulders pattern on its daily timeframe with $2 serving as the neckline and a major support. Similarly, an analyst identified as Jesse Colombo has also disclosed that XRP is forming the same pattern, indicating that a fall below $2 could be fatal. However, he did not specify how low the asset could go. Earlier, an analyst called IncomeSharks predicted that XRP could stage a dramatic fall to hit $0.6. His reason was that the asset had been following a “pump and dump” pattern. Regardless, other analysts remain optimistic about the future price of XRP. According to analyst Captain Faibik, the asset is forming a bullish pennant that could position the price at $5. This also aligns with a recent prediction by analyst Worlds of Charts. As explained in our last analysis, Worlds of Charts believes that a breakout from a descending trendline could trigger buying pressure, which would send XRP to $5. Another analyst called Egrad Crypto has also predicted that the asset could hit $27 this cycle. As mentioned in our previous news brief, XRP could repeat the 2017 move, which could likely send its market cap to at least $1 trillion.

Triple bottom on the Dow Jones

Australia rules out strategic crypto reserve, focuses on regulation The Australian government has no plans to establish a strategic crypto reserve, Cointelegraph reported, citing a spokesperson for Australian Assistant Treasurer and Financial Services Minister Stephen Jones. While several U.S. states are exploring the addition of crypto to their balance sheets, Australia’s ruling party remains focused on regulating digital asset platforms. However, the Albanese government acknowledges the potential of blockchain and digital assets to drive economic growth, enhance the financial sector and foster innovation.