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Brazil’s key interest rate peaked at 13.75% in 2022, while inflation came down to roughly 3% in June, 2023.23,24 That translated into the highest real rates in the world. The combination of this carry trade, continuously lower unemployment (now in mid-single digits), and consensus upgrades to GDP forecasts allowed the central bank to make four consecutive 50bp rate cuts between August and December with signals that there is more room to go. This is important for four reasons:

Philippines: The outlook for Philippine equities appears subdued as the market grapples with persistent inflation, a tough monetary policy stance, and macroeconomic uncertainties. However, the real estate sector, known for its resilience to inflation and defensive earnings, is anticipated to be a bright spot amongst the broader market challenges, especially leading mall operators.

Property Sector: President Xi’s 2017 statement prioritizing housing for living, not speculation, signaled a shift in policy that many developers and investors didn’t fully acknowledge. There is still significant supply for the market to digest, but we are encouraged by the proactive government measures to avoid spillover into other sectors. Broadly speaking, we’re also encouraged by the trend of Chinese households moving their savings out of real estate and into capital markets.

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