Solana Futures ETFs Fall Flat
Exchange-traded fund (ETF) service provider Volatility Shares launched two solana futures ETFs on March 20, the Solana ETF (SOLZ) and the 2x Solana ETF (SOLT). Both funds have had decent performance thus far, recording average daily trading volumes of roughly 80,000 and 140,000 units respectively, or $1.25 million and $2.16 million, according to Yahoo Finance. But Bloomberg ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas pointed out that volume for the Proshares Bitcoin ETF (BITO), a similar bitcoin-based futures fund, was significantly higher during its first week after launching in October 2021. “The new solana futures ETF hasn’t done much. A million in volume [for the] first few days is decent for [a] normal ETF, but nothing versus BTC,” Balchunas posted on X. “The further you get away from BTC the less asset there will be,” he added. BITO averaged more than 12 million units per day in trading volume during its first week, and at a mean price of about $17, that volume equates to roughly $204 million each day.
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Truflation: Inflation Movements Predict Upcoming Bitcoin Rally
Truflation, a real-time data provider for inflation indexes, presented a correlation between its real-time inflation data and bitcoin’s price movements. The company stated that every time its disinflation trend pauses or reverses, bitcoin tends to rally shortly after. Truflation, which classifies bitcoin as a risk asset, believes that these instances when inflation is relatively stable between changes become a “sweet spot” for bitcoin. “Bitcoin appears to be reacting to that early signal, even before CPI data or the Federal Reserve catches up,” Truflation assessed, putting inflation trend changes as leading indicators before a risk asset market bull run.
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With Strategy’s 528K BTC Hoard, 4 Entities Now Dominate 7.53% of Bitcoin
Kicking off the week, Michael Saylor, Strategy’s founder and executive chairman, announced the firm’s acquisition of 22,048 BTC, propelling its total holdings to 528,185 BTC—valued at $44.27 billion based on current exchange rates at 12:30 p.m. Eastern Time on March 31.
After the latest purchase, Strategy holds 528,185 BTC, which is 47,671.02 BTC less than IBIT’s stash.
When excluding cryptocurrency exchanges, Strategy now trails only Blackrock’s IBIT in corporate BTC holdings, with the latter maintaining 575,856.02 BTC (equivalent to $48.27 billion). To eclipse IBIT, Strategy would need to secure an additional 47,671.02 BTC—valued at $3.99 billion.
While Strategy can outpace the ETF, the fund operates daily (on weekdays) with inflows and occasional outflows. Strategy’s BTC reserves remain static, precluding outflows, whereas IBIT can accumulate additional holdings on weekdays when demand arises, potentially elevating its reserves.
Following IBIT, Fidelity’s FBTC ETF holds 196,932.78 BTC, valued at $16.5 billion. Grayscale’s GBTC follows closely, retaining 193,466.08 BTC, valued at $16.21 billion today. Excluding ETFs, Strategy emerges as the foremost publicly traded corporation with BTC on its balance sheet.
Collectively, Strategy, IBIT, FBTC, and GBTC command 1,494,439.88 BTC. This signifies that, of the 19.84 million BTC currently in circulation, these four entities account for 7.53% of the total supply.
The confluence of major corporate holders such as Strategy, ongoing ETF accumulation, and the prospective purchases for a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) alongside global equivalents may diminish bitcoin’s liquid supply, potentially precipitating a scarcity scenario—provided demand persists at current levels.
Notably, bitcoin’s divisibility (down to 0.00000001 BTC) ensures that even if whole-coin availability tightens, fractional trading of satoshis can preserve liquidity, ensuring market fluidity.
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Bitcoin Reclaims $83K as Institutional Buying Ramps Up
The leading digital asset dipped to $81K over the weekend, but news of Strategy (MSTR) and Metaplanet (3350) institutional purchases of $1.92 billion and $13.3 million respectively, helped buoy BTC back above the $83K threshold.
Bitcoin’s price remained volatile over the past 24 hours, trading in a range between $83,557.64 and $87,489.86. The flagship cryptocurrency, at the time of reporting, stands at $83,678.74, marking a 1.01% increase over the last 24 hours but a 5.07% decline over the past week, according to Coinmarketcap.
( BTC price / Trading View)
Despite the drop over the past seven days, the market showed signs of renewed activity. Trading volume surged by 90.34% to $27.27 billion, though much of this was due to the anticipated weekend trading slump. Meanwhile, bitcoin’s market capitalization dropped slightly by 0.95% to $1.65 trillion.
Two firms that have made headlines by successfully pivoting from traditional businesses to bitcoin treasury companies, Strategy and Metaplanet, both announced bitcoin purchases of 22,048 BTC (roughly $1.92 billion) and just under 160 BTC (for roughly $13.3 million or ¥2 billion) respectively. Metaplanet announced on March 30th that it had issued zero coupon bonds for the purchase while Strategy made its purchase announcement on March 31st.
(Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich announces his company’s latest BTC purchase / Simon Gerovich on X)
The acquisitions are a strong indication of persistent institutional interest in the digital asset which likely bodes well for bitcoin’s medium-to-long-term price action.
Analysis by crypto metrics firm Glassnode shows that only 40% of bitcoin is currently held by short-term holders versus 50% earlier in the year, indicating less dramatic price appreciation in the future.
(Short-term holders currently hold around 40% of bitcoin, after peaking at almost 50% earlier this year / Glassnode)
“This remains significantly below prior cycle tops, where new investor wealth peaked at 70–90%, suggesting a more tempered and distributed bull market so far,” Glassnode explained.
Other key indicators paint a mixed picture for bitcoin’s short-term outlook:
While short-term price action remains volatile, bitcoin’s medium-to-long-term fundamentals appear strong, driven by increasing institutional adoption and a maturing investor base. With long-term holders increasing their grip on supply, volatility may gradually subside, setting the stage for more sustainable price growth in the coming months.
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Trump Threats Secondary Tariffs on Russian Oil if Peace Talks Go Under
President Trump is now using the U.S. economic might to try to force a swift resolution of the Ukraine-Russia conflict through secondary tariffs. In a recent interview on NBC, President Donald Trump remarked he was “very angry” and “pissed off” at Putin’s attitude towards a possible peace deal, and stated that, if peace talks finally failed, and he believed it was Putin’s fault, his administration would take retaliatory action.
President Trump declared:
If I think it was Russia’s fault, I am going to put secondary tariffs on oil, on all oil coming out of Russia.
Furthermore, Trump clarified that these tariffs could go from 25 to 50%, which would be collected from the countries currently buying Russian oil and doing business with the U.S. These tariffs would be implemented within a month of not achieving a ceasefire.
The move is similar to the unilateral tariff scheme announced against Venezuelan oil last week, which is already affecting the nation’s monetary stability.
Read more: Trump Debuts ‘Never Before Seen’ Secondary Tariff Strategy Against Venezuela
China, Turkey, India, and the European Union (EU) are the largest purchasers of Russian oil. Applying such tariffs would put even more strain on Europe and deepen the already delicate relationship with China, which could be affected by the Venezuelan oil tariff scheme.
The announcement seeks to cripple the Russian oil apparatus, putting Putin in a position of weakness to facilitate further negotiations. Nonetheless, analysts claim that while India might bow to appease Trump, China is less likely to do so, as it is already embroiled in a trade war with the U.S.
The markets evaluated Trump’s tariff menace as a bluff, as oil futures fell marginally due to the possible unfeasibility of his claims, even with comments about a possible bombing on Iran.
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