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UNDERSTANDING CONSENSUS THINKING The study of consensus psychology allows you to understand how the consensus thinks and therefore how it behaves. Why? Because thoughts dictate emotions, actions, and the future. So, by understanding the thinking of the consensus, you can establish probabilities about investors’ actions. Here’s an example: If the consensus is bullish about an interest rate cut on September 17, then you can already anticipate the actions that will follow: the majority of the consensus will want to buy. Even though they haven’t bought since the bottom in April. As Moneytaur has already said, yes, most of the market moves are created by algorithms. And as I’ve explained many times when talking about the book “Secrets of Trading of a Buddhist Monk”, the majority of moves are the result of a collective thought. If the consensus all thinks the same thing, then their actions will all be the same. That’s what we seek to determine: what does the consensus think? And how will the whales trap them? If an asset has very low capitalization, it is indeed the retailers, through their numbers, who can move the price. But if it has high capitalization, they cannot. Even if they position themselves when they see a compression triangle or another chart pattern, thinking the price will “explode,” it won’t happen like that. Because the market moves through transactions there must be a force of transactions to move it. Yet the consensus thinks the market moves on its own. This explains why, when the herd sees a chart pattern, they believe it will validate their analysis. If it’s a low-cap asset, as mentioned, the combined transactions of the consensus fuel the move, creating a self-fulfilling thought. But in the case of a highly capitalized asset, it’s price action that rules and that’s the whales’ playground. They are the ones who decide where the market goes, and they can use this to trap investors. Just like the 7year compression triangle on XRP, which “exploded” but not by “chance.” What are retails waiting for? An XRP at $100 or even $10,000. On large caps, or at least where price action dominates, it’s not retails who start a pump. It’s the whales they initiate the move, and then retails flood in. The same applies to dumps. At the bottom of the market, retails don’t want to invest. The large buying liquidity injected comes from whales. And when their orders are synchronized in large amounts, they trigger an artificial pump. The higher the price goes, the less they need to fuel the move, because retails are investing more and more. The higher the price goes, the more they buy. What I define as an “artificial pump” is when whales create a market move, making the consensus believe it was a natural move when in fact, it wasn’t. At the top of the market, retails don’t want to sell, they want to buy. So the whales no longer need to push the price. They sell silently, and when most of their orders are executed, the price falls aggressively, because retails don’t have the buying power needed to maintain the price. Whales are always ahead, the consensus is always behind. Nothing happens by chance in the markets. If the whales initiate a move, it is part of their plan. As Moneytaur has already told you, the goal of the whales is not to make you rich. Psychology is the pillar that represents 99% of a trader’s success. This gives you a key insight 🔑 the actions of the consensus mostly come not from their knowledge, but from the emotional thoughts they carry. And since they act under the state of their emotions, they are not really trading the market they are trading their own emotions. Without realizing it, they become their own worst enemy, and then they blame the market when they are wrong. But the market itself… it is neutral.

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I’ve been thinking a lot about the AI landscape, and it’s clear that giants like Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon dominate the space, with combined market caps over $8 trillion. Their control over infrastructure, data, and economic value puts power in just a few hands.

yes i agree with this take. this is why i rotate my bag into bnb or bitcoin near the end of a bull. the biggest mistake people make is chasing “tokens that didn’t pump yet.” the smarter move is letting winners ride and cutting losers. early in the cycle you can take shots on smaller alts with strong fundamentals, but as the cycle matures, larger caps with liquidity are where you protect gains. chasing laggards late is how most people hand back their profits.