Circle IPO odds tumble on Polymarket amid Trump tariff turmoil

The odds of a Circle initial public offering happening this year took a hit on Friday as markets reeled from President Donald Trump's tariffs, causing some companies to pause their IPO plans.

On the crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket, the odds that Circle, issuer of the second-largest stablecoin by supply, USDC, will launch its IPO this year  dropped by as much as 25% on Friday, falling from a 96% chance earlier in the week to a likelihood of 71%.

Estimates of the Circle IPO happening jumped earlier this week to 96% after the company filed a prospectus . However, President Trump's tariffs, announced Wednesday, have rattled markets, causing some companies to reconsider going public. For one, Swedish fintech Klarna and StubHub have both paused their planned IPOs, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Before Trump announced his sweeping tariffs, Circle filed a prospectus for its planned IPO with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Circle has been looking to go public for quite some time and appeared ready to pounce on a market that, until Trump's tariffs, appeared exceedingly bullish for stablecoin-related companies. Additionally, the U.S. government seems on the verge of passing legislation that will bring added legitimacy to the stablecoin market.

The Polymarket odds have also been affected by crypto news aggregator Velo posting that Circle had delayed its IPO. The link was shared en masse on X.

Circle did not immediately respond to a request for comment when asked about its IPO

Curiously, on Friday, Paolo Ardoino, CEO of Tether — issuer of the world’s largest stablecoin — appeared to throw shade at Circle’s IPO plans with a post on X , sharing a photo of himself in front of a massive bull sculpture and writing, "Tether doesn't need to go public."