Bitcoin Stabilizes: Is Volatility on the Horizon? Technical Analysis for February 19, 2025

Since its last rebound, bitcoin has been in a consolidation phase for two weeks. Find Elyfe’s analysis to decipher the technical outlook for BTC.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Situation

After plunging to the support of $91,350, the price of bitcoin gained buyer interest, allowing it to rebound and re-enter the $100,000 mark. Unfortunately, the cryptocurrency failed to break this threshold and saw a decline in its price, before entering a consolidation phase in a range between $98,000 and $94,000. Thus, Bitcoin seems to be in a state of indecision for the past two weeks.

At the time of writing, bitcoin is trading around $96,000. It is closer to the lower end of its range and is located right in a significant value zone, just below the annual VWAP and its 50-day moving average, which are at the same level as its monthly pivot point at $100,335. Although the BTC price is stabilizing, the short-term trend remains bearish. However, the medium and long-term trends remain bullish.

On the bullish dynamics of bitcoin, it is observed that it has been revised downward, but it continues to stabilize, suggesting a potential for a larger movement to come. This is reflected both in its price and in its oscillators.

BTCUSD Daily Chart

The current technical analysis has been conducted in collaboration with Elyfe , an investor and educator in the cryptocurrency market.

Zoom on Derivatives (BTC/USDT)

Over the past few weeks, we have observed a simultaneous decrease in open interest and the price of the underlying asset, indicating a gradual exit from positions in the market. However, this trend seems to have stabilized over the past two weeks.

Open interest is no longer decreasing significantly, suggesting market consolidation. This plateau can be interpreted as a sign that market participants are waiting for a catalyst before resuming more active positions.

Although signs of stabilization are emerging, the CVD continues to reflect a persistent bearish trend. This indicates a predominance of selling orders, but with pressure gradually easing. This dynamic suggests a slowing down of sellers’ aggressiveness, which could herald a waning of the bearish movement. Continued stabilization, or even a reversal of the CVD, could signal a rebalancing between buyers and sellers, or even a change in trend.

Since the last correction of Bitcoin, liquidations have remained limited on both sides of the market, with no significant movements for either buyers or sellers. This situation reflects a stable market, contained volatility, and prudent risk management. However, this balance is temporary. A resurgence of volatility remains likely, especially in the event of a sudden increase in volumes or the appearance of an external catalyst.

Bitcoin Open Interest / Liquidations / CVD & Funding rate

The liquidation heatmap for BTC/USDT perpetual contracts reveals that bitcoin is currently moving between major liquidation zones:

• Above, a first liquidation zone is identified around $100,000, followed by a plateau at $103,000, and then a broader zone located between $107,000 and $111,000.

• Below, a notable concentration of orders appears around $93,000, with a second well-defined liquidation level around $88,000.

These thresholds represent critical inflection points for the market. An approach of the price toward these levels could trigger massive liquidation order activations, amplifying volatility and triggering marked directional movements.

BTC Liquidation Heatmap

Forecasts for Bitcoin (BTC) Price

• If bitcoin manages to stay above $94,000, a recovery could allow it to surpass $100,335, thus paving the way towards $102,500. Exceeding this threshold could then favor a return towards $106,000, then to its ATH at $109,354, representing an increase of about 12%.

• Conversely, if bitcoin fails to stay above $94,000, it may find support around $92,800. A prolonged decline would then bring its price back to the support of $91,300. Finally, breaking this level could lead to a further drop towards the zone of $89,000 or even $88,000 and more, representing a drop of approximately 8%.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is in a phase of indecision after an interrupted rebound, stabilizing in a narrow range. Despite a short-term bearish trend, the underlying bullish dynamics remain intact. The market seems to be awaiting a catalyst, and an exit from this consolidation could lead to a more pronounced movement. In this context, it will be essential to closely monitor price reactions at strategic levels to confirm or adjust current forecasts.

Finally, let us remind you that these analyses are based solely on technical criteria, and the prices of cryptocurrencies can evolve rapidly based on other more fundamental factors.

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