$99K Trump 'plunge protection' — 5 Things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin ( BTC ) gets a flying start on US Presidential Inauguration Day as new all-time highs put $110,000 on the radar.

• Traders see major volatility characterizing Bitcoin and crypto markets this week as President-elect Donald Trump takes office.

• Trump is already delivering multiple volatility catalysts, with rumors that he will announce a strategic Bitcoin reserve during his inauguration speech already circulating.

• Macroeconomic data takes a backseat for a few brief days before the US inflation battle returns to the spotlight.

• The flipside to the Trump crypto narrative makes itself known as traders navigate unpredictable memecoin announcements.

• No one is in the mood to sell BTC, exchange reserve data shows, with available supply at its lowest level since 2018.

BTC price retakes all-time highs on Trump Inauguration Day

BTC price action is expected to be marked by unusual moves and sudden short-term volatility as the new US government under President-elect Donald Trump takes office.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

That trend is already in evidence on Inauguration Day, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms, with Bitcoin hitting new all-time highs as rumors spread that Trump will announce a strategic reserve.

However, those highs remain below $110,000, as a thick sell wall keeps price discovery from heading further into uncharted territory.

Commenting on current order book activity on Jan. 20, popular trader Skew flagged entities selling into the price.

“$109K seller visualized quoting ask liquidity above price & selling clips into this taker bid,” he wrote in ongoing coverage on X.

“Implies it's going to take a lot more juice to auction higher currently - basically a fight of who has deeper pockets here.”

BTC/USDT order book liquidity on Binance. Source: Skew/X

Another post described a “pretty ripe environment for pretty volatile moves” on lower timeframes.

“$110K supply remains with added ask liquidity around $109K,” Skew explained .

BTC/USDT order book liquidity on Binance. Source: Skew/X

Zooming out, fellow trader CrypNuevo highlighted key levels below the spot price, which should act as support in the event of another snap turnaround. These include $99,000 and $95,500.

“Although markets are closed on Monday, we'll have a volatile week because the market will react to Trump's first week,” he summarized on Jan. 19.

BTC/USDT 12-hour chart. Source: CrypNuevo/X

Trading resource Material Indicators noted that “plunge protection” in the form of bid liquidity had been added around $99,000 on Binance.

Material Indicators co-founder Keith Alan saw the chance of a “golden cross” playing out involving the 21-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs).

“The momentum from that Golden Cross should push BTC back to ATH territory,” he predicted .

BTC/USDT order book liquidity for Binance. Source: Material Indicators/X

Bitcoin strategic reserve hype boils over

Buzz over the inbound Trump administration possibly creating a strategic reserve for the US is a firm factor in current crypto market momentum, commentators agree.

The plans, if they exist at all, remain unclear, and rumors suggest that altcoins may join Bitcoin as part of a diversified reserve plan.

Other claims circling on social media include Trump referencing the reserve as part of his inauguration speech.

🚨 RUMOR ALERT: A leaked script of the upcoming inauguration speech mentions a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

NEW ALL TIME HIGHS INCOMING 🚀 pic.twitter.com/xQv48yqaxx

— CEO (@Investments_CEO) January 20, 2025

Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis, the well-known Bitcoin proponent who authored a bill to support the reserve, met with Trump on Jan. 19.

Among crypto market participants, the odds appear good. Prediction service Polymarket currently has near 60% odds of some sort of Bitcoin reserve becoming reality during Trump’s first 100 days in office.

“The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is not priced in,” Dan Held, the “OG” Bitcoin commentator turned advisor and investor, declared to X followers.

Popular trader Pentoshi, summarizing the mood among the trading community, argued that it was “pretty clear” that inauguration day would bring some beneficial executive orders from Trump.

“How many other nations will follow?” he queried about the reserve.

“That's the game everyone must play.”

Fed saves inflation gloom for next week

US Presidential inauguration week promises to be unlike any other for traditional markets this year.

Coming at a key juncture for inflation and longer-term Federal Reserve policy, the event — at least temporarily — should focus attention away from current macroeconomic narratives.

Commenting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter highlighted President-Elect Donald Trump’s pro-crypto policies as a unique catalyst for risk assets.

“Deregulation and the US government's adoption of crypto is expected in 2025,” it wrote in part of ongoing market analysis on X. 

“This is driving investor sentiment and risk appetite across all markets.”

US stocks closed the week up ahead of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, with the coming week light on macro data prints. The key release comes in the form of weekly jobless claims data, scheduled for Jan. 23.

Kobeissi meanwhile highlighted other significant events, all potentially able to move markets. These include the US likely hitting its debt ceiling on Jan. 21.

“The US government has added $13 TRILLION of debt since 2020,” it noted in commentary over the weekend. 

“The debt crisis didn’t end the last time the debt ceiling was raised. It simply just keeps getting brushed under the rug. This is unsustainable.”

As Cointelegraph reported , recent inflation data has given risk-asset traders a headache ahead of the Fed’s next decision on interest rate changes, due on Jan. 29. 

The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool maintains that a fresh rate cut is highly improbable, with the odds at just 0.5%.

Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group

Memecoin madness captures crypto markets

Even before the Trump administration takes power, crypto markets are being shaken by something few would have anticipated in previous years: “Presidential” memecoins.

The launch of OFFICIAL TRUMP ($TRUMP) in the days leading up to Trump’s inauguration sparked a trading frenzy — one which punished latecomer investors when his wife, Melania, began to  promote her own token .

Bitcoin stayed mostly stable until the appearance of Official Melania Meme (MELANIA), which briefly sent BTC/USD below $100,000.

New all-time highs on Jan. 20 then saw Bitcoin join the broader crypto volatility party, with traders warning of many more unpredictable moves to come.

“Hope trumpcoin continues to do well, because if this thing collapses, our whole industry will suffer,” Charles Edwards, founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, warned on Jan. 19.

Kobeissi meanwhile noted the registration of several new domain names, which could hint at the release of several more Trump-related memecoins.

Source: The Kobeissi Letter

At the time of writing on Jan. 20, TRUMP traded at just below $60 per token, rebounding from previous lows to maintain its position in the top twenty cryptocurrencies by market cap.

Summing up the mood, popular analyst Miles Deutscher described the Trump memecoin phenomenon as the “craziest thing” he has seen in his six-year career.

“Profits from the $TRUMP rally could siphon down into the broader altcoin market,” he predicted in a dedicated X thread on the topic.

Bitcoin avoids major exchange sell-off

Bitcoin exchange balances continue to support a HODL-oriented mindset among Bitcoin investors.

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The latest data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant reveals that the amount of available BTC on major exchanges is at its lowest levels in seven years.

As of Jan. 18, the exchanges’ total balance was 2.34 million BTC — a low not seen since mid-2018.

“Supply shock,” Deutscher responded on X.

Bitcoin exchange reserve. Source: CryptoQuant

While not everyone believes that exchange balances reflect overall market depth, CryptoQuant sees a clear trend accompanying the current bull market.

Analyzing exchange netflows, contributor CryptoOnChain noted dwindling volumes across major trading platforms on a rolling 100-day basis.

“The historical low for Bitcoin Exchange Netflow occurred in February 2023, when Bitcoin experienced the lowest price of this cycle,” they wrote in a Quicktake blog post on Jan. 19.

“The value of this metric at that time was -3.657K. Now, nearly two years later, Bitcoin is once again approaching this value. Currently, the value of this metric is around -3.38K. This could be an indication of a potential re-accumulation of Bitcoin.”

Bitcoin exchange netflow (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.