Ross Ulbricht's pardon odds rise to 79% as Trump takes office

As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to assume office, the odds of Ross Ulbricht, the founder of the Silk Road, receiving a pardon have surged to 79% on the Kalshi prediction market.

This increase reflects growing optimism among supporters following Trump's previous commitments to commute Ulbricht's sentence.

"If you vote for me, on day one, I will commute the sentence of Ross Ulbricht to a sentence of time served," Trump stated, assuring attendees during a speech at the Libertarian Party’s National Convention in May 2024.

He reiterated this promise at the 2024 Bitcoin conference in July, emphasising his intent to free Ulbricht after over 11 years of imprisonment.

Ulbricht's case has garnered significant attention within the cryptocurrency community, particularly among Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) advocates who align with libertarian principles.

His arrest in 2013 followed a two-year investigation into Silk Road, an online marketplace for illicit goods.

Charged with multiple offenses including running a criminal enterprise and money laundering, Ulbricht was sentenced to life in prison in 2015.

In recent communications, Ulbricht expressed his trust in Trump to fulfill his promise.

"After 11-plus years in darkness, I can finally see the light of freedom at the end of the tunnel," he wrote on November 12, 2024.

Legal experts suggest that if Trump maintains his pledge, it could set a precedent for future pardons within the crypto space.

However, concerns remain about potential political shifts that could impact Ulbricht's chances.

If Democrats regain control of Congress or the presidency in upcoming elections, Trump's pro-crypto policies—and by extension, Ulbricht's pardon—could be jeopardised.

As Inauguration Day approaches on January 20, all eyes are on Trump and whether he will act on his commitment to commute Ulbricht's sentence within his first 100 days in office.