Decoding the Altcoin Season: 6 Major Accumulation Strategies to Help You Seize the Altcoin Market

Source: CryptoAmsterdam X Account

Author: CryptoAmsterdam

Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow

1. When Will the Altcoin Season Arrive?

I believe the altcoin season will arrive soon, here are some key analysis points:

1.1 The Cycle is Divided into Two Stages

• Stage 1: Bitcoin price rises, altcoin prices fall (Bitcoin market dominance increases).

• Stage 2: Bitcoin breaks through its historical high, and altcoins begin to enter a rapid rise phase.

This pattern can be seen more clearly in the chart below:

During this stage, we start accumulating altcoins when the total market cap of altcoins is at a low point. I believe altcoin prices will break new highs just like Bitcoin.

Currently, Stage 2 has already started!

For more details, see: link .

1.2 Capital Flow Patterns

The starting point of the bull market can be traced back to the end of 2023, when Bitcoin rebounded from a low, returned to the range, and rose to previous highs, while altcoins depreciated against Bitcoin, increasing Bitcoin's market dominance.

When Bitcoin breaks through its historical high (which is the current stage), capital begins to flow into large-cap altcoins. From the Total 3 (the total market cap of the top 100 altcoins minus BTC and ETH) chart, although it is currently driven mainly by large-cap coins (like XRP), the performance of mid and small-cap coins is also catching up.

Eventually, funds from Bitcoin and large-cap coins will gradually flow into mid and small-cap altcoins.

As market sentiment rises, investors will become greedier and start chasing mid and small-cap altcoins. I expect "others" mid-cap altcoins to reach new highs. The real altcoin season is still ahead.

1.3 Bitcoin Market Dominance

Each cycle has a similar pattern: when Bitcoin's price breaks through previous highs and first spikes, its market dominance begins to decline.

Currently, Bitcoin's market dominance has broken a rising trend that lasted over 800 days.

1.4 ETHBTC Trend Analysis

In each cycle, Ethereum tends to perform weakly in the early stages (Bitcoin rises but remains below previous highs), and then rebounds when Bitcoin stabilizes above previous highs.

The current cycle is no exception. More funds are expected to flow into Ethereum ecosystem tokens, on-chain utility tokens, and high-risk tokens. Once ETHBTC truly enters an upward trend, the performance of these tokens will be even more impressive.

ETHBTC Chart Analysis

Currently, ETHBTC has retraced and re-established itself above the range low.

In 2021, it failed to break through the resistance of Stage 4. Will we see a "super surge" in Stage 5 during this cycle?

If it breaks the current downward trend line, it will end a bear market trend lasting 1100 days.

Additionally, 2024 is also an important year for the launch of Ethereum ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds), and I believe the market still underestimates Ethereum's potential.

2. Have You Already Missed the Opportunity?

As mentioned earlier, the Amsterdam team has been accumulating altcoins during the Total 3 market cap low over the past 5-6 months.

At the range low, it is recommended to:

• Buy at key support levels;

• Gradually build positions during slow oscillations, rather than chasing prices;

• Set clear stop-loss points (e.g., below the range);

• The market's low volatility makes it easier to hold.

But if you choose to buy after the price has risen vertically:

• You may not have a clear stop-loss point. This may not significantly affect short-term traders, but for long-term investors, the lack of a stop-loss point increases risk.

• The profit opportunity from the range low to high has disappeared, and the current bet has turned into "can the altcoin market cap break new highs."

• Buying during a rapid price increase means you will face higher market volatility, with 20-30% pullbacks not being uncommon.

So, I believe you are not too late because:

• Bitcoin still has room to rise.

• The capital rotation has not fully reached the mid and small-cap altcoin stage (the "Others" chart indicates potential new highs), so the most profitable stage has yet to come.

• Bitcoin's dominance may further decline, while the ETHBTC ratio will rise.

But please note the following points:

• Understand the current stage of the market cycle.

• Clarify whether you are entering a coin for short-term trading or long-term investment.

• Develop a clear profit plan.

• Recognize that this is a high-volatility stage, and rapid declines of 10%-30% may occur.

• Accept that these rapid declines are difficult to predict; if you attempt to trade these pullbacks, you may disrupt your originally longer-term investment plan.

Risk analysis for entering at this stage (rather than entering in the past 3-6 months):

Please refer to this .

3. Suggestions on How to Enter:

If you missed the accumulation phase over the past 6 months, first think about why you missed it.

It is likely due to emotional influences:

• In a bull market, prices often rise very quickly, with almost no obvious and sustainable pullbacks.

• Many people miss the opportunity to rise, and when they "fear missing out" and chase prices, the market often enters a consolidation or rapid decline phase.

• During the consolidation, they become pessimistic and ultimately miss the opportunity for a rapid rise again.

The correct strategy is: to build positions gradually during consolidation or pullback phases, and maintain patience, focusing on the market structure over a longer time frame.

For more content, please refer to here .

Next are specific suggestions!

Suggestion 1: Stick to Spot Trading, Avoid Leverage

Prioritize spot trading.

Many people are accustomed to using leverage, but this is actually a trap. Every market fluctuation makes it feel like an "opportunity," but in reality, most of the time it is not. You do not need to rush to act. Leverage trading will ultimately lead most people to losses or even zero------do not let it ruin your bull market gains.

Stick to spot trading, so you won't be unable to hold positions due to excessive leverage, or worse, be forcibly liquidated and miss market opportunities.

Trust me, stay away from leverage trading.

Suggestion 2: Do Not Chase Prices, Focus on Pullbacks

Most people trade based on emotions, only buying when prices rise (green candles) because it makes them feel "safe."

But the market does not rise straight up; even in a bull market, there will be pullbacks:

• Daily fluctuations: small pullbacks of a few percentage points.

• Every few weeks: panic declines of 10%-30%.

If you buy when prices rise, you are likely to sell in panic during a pullback.

• Buying during a rise may feel reassuring.

• Selling during a decline may feel like relief.

But the correct strategy is:

• Buying may make you feel scared, but this is the right time.

• Selling may make you feel reluctant, but this is the rational choice.

If you can go against the trend, building positions during pullbacks and boldly buying during panic declines, you will have an advantage over most people.

Suggestion 3: Build Positions Gradually, Operate Patiently

So far:

• Only choose spot trading.

• Do not chase prices, but build positions during pullbacks.

Additionally, you do not need to invest all your funds at once.

You can choose to build positions gradually. If the price drops 5%, and you invest all your funds in altcoins at once, then if the market experiences a larger adjustment (such as a drop of 10%, 20%, or even 30%), you may panic and sell.

The correct strategy is: when the price drops 5%, first invest 10% of your funds. This way, when a larger pullback occurs later (like 10%, 20%, or 30%), you can continue to gradually add to your position instead of being shaken out by market fluctuations.

What if the pullback does not deepen? That's okay. Do not invest all your funds at once out of fear of missing out; this may force you to exit during a deeper pullback.

There will be more pullbacks and accumulation opportunities in the future.

In a highly volatile market, you cannot perfectly grasp every fluctuation. You also do not need to buy at the lowest point or sell at the highest point; just focus on long-term gains.

Suggestion 4: Control Risks, Avoid Overexposure

You may have heard of those legendary stories of "going all in" and making millions, but overexposure will greatly test your psychological endurance. If your position is too heavy, you may be forced to sell in panic during a market pullback, ultimately missing out on larger opportunities.

Suggestion 5: Develop a Plan That Suits You

Do not directly apply someone else's plan; instead, develop a clear investment plan based on your own goals and risk tolerance. This plan should include risk management and various contingency plans in case the market moves contrary to expectations.

A good plan can help you remain calm during market fluctuations, avoiding making wrong decisions due to panic or excitement, while also helping you gradually achieve profitable exits.

Here are some points that need to be clarified in the plan:

• Keep it Simple: Do not make the plan overly complicated.

• Focus on Long Time Frames (HTF): Pay attention to the big trends, not short-term fluctuations.

• Clarify Goals:

• What market signals do I want to see?

• Which tokens do I want to invest in? Why choose them?

• How much capital do I plan to invest?

• At what price ranges will I build positions gradually?

• When will I exit?

For how to develop periodic profit plans, you can refer to this tweet .

Suggestion 6: Focus on Long Time Frames, Keep Strategies Simple

• Only focus on long time frame (HTF) charts, avoiding distractions from short-term fluctuations.

• You only need to pay attention to key price ranges and market structures, without being overly concerned with market noise.

• Keep strategies simple and clear.

Even simple strategies can give you an advantage in the market:

• Most people use leverage trading, but you do not.

• Most people chase prices when they rise (green candles), but you do not.

• Most people do not have a clear profit plan, but you have your own plan.

• Most people buy or sell all at once, but you choose to build positions and exit gradually.

Before sharing my altcoin watchlist, let me discuss an important point:

Point of View:

In the current market, altcoins ("Others" market cap) are expected to reach new highs and attract capital inflows from Bitcoin and mainstream coins.

Currently, the "Others" market cap is slightly above the median line of the range and is gradually approaching the upper range.

It is important to note that the upper range is usually a strong resistance area, and there may be multiple tests and pullbacks before a breakout. When the market performs strongly (like today with a sea of "green"), this point is often overlooked.

Recall Bitcoin's performance before breaking through the upper range: it went through multiple pullbacks and consolidations before successfully breaking out.

Even looking back at the last bull market cycle, at the very beginning of the altcoin season, the "Others" market cap chart experienced a significant 30% pullback before breaking through the upper range.

So please remember the following points:

• Before the full altcoin season arrives, the market may experience significant pullbacks, and there may even be weeks of declining trends.

• But do not try to predict these pullbacks and wait; instead, adopt the following strategies:

• Gradually Build Positions: Increase your position gradually, do not invest all your funds at once.

• Avoid Using Leverage: Leverage trading carries extremely high risks and may lead to forced liquidation.

• Buy During Pullbacks: Focus on building positions during market declines (red candles), rather than chasing prices during rises (green candles).

Be patient, follow a long-term strategy, and you will be more likely to profit from market fluctuations.

1. $SOL

SOL is currently a strong-performing large-cap coin, showing significant advantages in this market cycle------this is a choice worth paying attention to.

From the perspective of the market cycle, I expect SOL to break through the current upper range and have significant upside potential when the price enters the "discovery phase" (i.e., when the price reaches a historical high and the market explores its true value).

Currently, consider building positions gradually at this stage, but be aware that the current price is in a resistance area at the upper range. If you invest all at once, you may find it difficult to withstand potential future price pullbacks of 10%-30%. Therefore, it is recommended to strictly follow the plan for gradual position building.

Additionally, it is advisable to use spot trading and avoid leverage. Here are my operational thoughts:

• Wait for the price to break through the upper range before making a small initial investment.

• If the price continues to rise and stabilizes at a high level, you can continue to build positions gradually.

• If the price falls back below the range and then breaks through again, that is another opportunity to add to your position.

• If the price pulls back to the previous consolidation range, that can also be a time to build positions gradually.

• When the price rebounds after a pullback and breaks the short-term downtrend line, you can also consider adding to your position.

In summary, develop a clear response plan for various possible market movements and gradually build positions through spot trading.

1. $BLUR

BLUR is a relatively special coin. Earlier this year, it failed to hold the Stage 4 range low (i.e., the price support in the low area failed), possibly due to the overall downturn in the NFT market at that time.

Now, the NFT market is recovering. Opensea may launch its own token, and Magic Eden's token will also go live next week.

With these positive events, combined with the current market and chart performance, BLUR may regain market attention.

My main observation point is: when the price recovers the range low (marked by arrows on the chart), will there be an opportunity to build positions?

If the market declines again, you can also try to build positions at the Stage 3 range low.

However, for me, this coin is more suitable for short-term trading rather than long-term holding.

1. $MEME

The investment cycle of meme-themed tokens is something even ordinary investors have heard of. I find it hard to imagine that a token named "MEME" would not attract widespread market attention after being listed on all top exchanges.

The price structure of this token is very perfect, currently in Stage 3. I will wait for the price to clearly break through and reclaim key positions before entering.

Additionally, this token is associated with a large NFT series. With the recovery of the NFT market, the implementation of the $ME incentive program, and the potential launch of the Opensea token, it may gain further upward momentum.

1. $ORAI

$ORAI is a veteran AI token. Last week, it successfully reclaimed Stage 4 (orange area) in the short-term market structure, so I bought back some positions.

If the price pulls back to this range again, I will continue to add to my position.

Additionally, I have set price alerts; when it forms a breakout above the macro range low, that will become a new entry signal.

1. $TIA

Since TIA reclaimed and retested the range low, I have been holding it.

Currently, it is attempting to break through the current price structure. I believe if the price forms a clear breakout above the gray area, the subsequent pullback will be a good opportunity to add to my position.