Bitwise's top ten predictions for 2025: In the first year of crypto IPOs, more than five crypto unicorns will be listed in the United States

Original author: Matt Hougan, Ryan Rasmussen, Bitwise

Original translation: Yuliya, PANews

2024 has been a landmark year for the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin surged to an all-time high of $103,992 (up 141.72% year-to-date as of writing), mainly due to the record issuance of the US spot Bitcoin ETF, which attracted $33.56 billion in assets. Other major crypto assets also achieved huge gains: Solana rose 127.71%, XRP rose 285.23%, and Ethereum rose 75.77%. Meanwhile, cryptocurrency-related stocks such as MicroStrategy and Coinbase surged 525.39% and 97.57%, respectively.

Record prices are not the only noteworthy development. Cryptocurrency clearly has the upper hand in the 2024 US election, which makes the outlook for cryptocurrency regulation in the United States brighter. President-elect Trump supported cryptocurrencies during his campaign, promising to establish a strategic reserve of Bitcoin and reorganize the SEC (an agency that has historically been hostile to cryptocurrencies). He also nominated Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, who has said that "cryptocurrency represents freedom and the crypto economy will exist for a long time." Congress is also clearly leaning in favor of cryptocurrencies heading into 2024, with pro-cryptocurrency candidates defeating opponents in several key elections. Expect to see pro-cryptocurrency legislation in the coming months.

The outlook for 2025 looks pretty bright, driven by global stimulus policies from China and other major central banks, growing institutional adoption, and rapid improvements in blockchain technology.

TL;DR

01: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana will hit all-time highs, with Bitcoin trading above $200,000.

02: Bitcoin ETFs will see more inflows in 2025 than in 2024.

03: Coinbase will surpass Charles Schwab to become the world's most valuable brokerage firm, with its stock price topping $700 per share.

04: 2025 will be the "first year of crypto IPOs," with at least five crypto unicorns going public in the U.S.

05: Tokens issued by AI agents will lead a larger meme coin craze than in 2024.

06: The number of countries holding Bitcoin will double.

07: Coinbase will enter the S&P 500 and MicroStrategy will enter the Nasdaq 100, adding cryptocurrency exposure to the portfolio of (almost) every US investor.

08: The US Department of Labor will relax its guidance on restrictions on cryptocurrencies in 401(k) plans, allowing hundreds of billions of dollars to flow into crypto assets.

09: Stablecoin assets will double to $400 billion as the US passes long-awaited stablecoin legislation.

10: The value of tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) will exceed $50 billion as Wall Street's acceptance of cryptocurrencies deepens.

Bonus Prediction: Bitcoin will surpass the $18 trillion gold market and trade at over $1 million per coin by 2029

Prediction 1: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana will hit new all-time highs, with Bitcoin surpassing $200,000

The crypto trio of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana outperformed all major asset classes in 2024, rising 141.72%, 75.77%, and 127.71%, respectively. In comparison, the S&P 500 rose 28.07%, gold rose 27.65%, and bonds rose 3.40%.

This momentum is expected to continue into 2025, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana all hitting new all-time highs. Specific target prices are as follows:

Bitcoin: $200,000

· Record ETF inflows push Bitcoin to a new high in 2024

· This trend is expected to continue

· Halving in April 2024 will reduce new supply

· New buying demand from companies and governments

· If the U.S. government implements its proposal to establish a 1 million bitcoin strategic reserve, the price may reach $500,000 or more

Ethereum: $7,000

· Despite a 75.77% increase in 2024, Ethereum's attention among investors has declined

· Expect a shift in the narrative in 2025

· Drivers include:

-Acceleration of activity on Layer 2 blockchains like Base and Starknet

-Spot Ethereum ETFs to attract billions of dollars in inflows

-Massive growth of stablecoins and tokenized projects on Ethereum

Solana: $750

· Strong recovery in 2024 driven by meme coin mania

· Momentum expected to continue to build

· The 2025 catalyst will be the migration of “serious” projects to the network

· Early examples already in place, such as the migration of the Render project

· This trend is expected to accelerate in the coming year

Catalysts

· Increased institutional investment

· Continued corporate buying

· Investment banks approve cryptocurrency businesses

· U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Program

· Better regulatory and political environment

· Tighter supply due to Bitcoin halving

· Layer-2 scaling solutions

· Macro tailwinds (rate cuts, Chinese stimulus)

· Increased allocation ratio (3% becomes the new 1% standard)

Potential headwinds

· Disappointing Washington policies

· Risk of leverage blow-up

· Government sell-off

· Failed meme coin craze

· Less-than-expected rate cuts

Forecast 2: Bitcoin ETF inflows in 2025 will exceed 2024

When the US spot Bitcoin ETF launched in January 2024, ETF experts predicted that the product group would attract inflows of $5 billion to $15 billion in the first year. In fact, the upper end of the expected range was exceeded within the first six months. Since launch, these record-breaking ETFs have attracted inflows of $33.6 billion. Inflows in 2025 are expected to exceed this number. Three supporting reasons for this prediction:

1. The first year is usually the slowest year for ETFs

· The best historical analogy for Bitcoin ETFs is the launch of gold ETFs in 2004

· That year, gold ETFs attracted an exciting $2.6 billion in inflows

· But here’s what happened in the following years (figures adjusted for inflation):

Year 2: $5.5 billion

Year 3: $7.6 billion

Year 4: $8.7 billion

Year 5: $16.8 billion

Year 6: $28.9 billion

The key is: it’s in line with gold ETFs for inflows in the second year to exceed the first; it’s unusual for inflows to fall

2. Major investment banks are joining

· The world’s largest investment banks (including Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Bank of America and Wells Fargo) have yet to unleash the power of their wealth managers

· These products are currently largely inaccessible to these money managers

· This is expected to change in 2025

· The trillions of dollars managed by these firms will begin to flow into Bitcoin ETFs

3. Investors are gradually increasing their allocations — 1% becomes 3%

Bitwise has observed a clear pattern over the past seven years of helping investment professionals enter the cryptocurrency market:

· Most investors start with a small allocation and then gradually increase over time

· Investors who buy Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 are expected to mostly double their investment in 2025

Prediction 3: Coinbase will surpass Charles Schwab to become the world’s most valuable brokerage firm, and its stock price will exceed $700 per share USD

At the beginning of 2023, investors could buy Coinbase stock for $35. Today, its share price is $344, up nearly 10 times. Forecasts show that this price may continue to rise, and the increase may be significant.

Forecast: Coinbase stock will exceed $700 in 2025 (more than double its current price). This will make Coinbase the most valuable brokerage firm in the world, surpassing Charles Schwab.

Here’s why: Coinbase is more than just a brokerage firm.

Three major catalysts driving its development:

1. Stablecoin business

· Thanks to the agreement with USDC issuer Circle, Coinbase's stablecoin business is booming

· Stablecoin revenue has increased by $162 million (+31%) year-to-date

· This trend will continue if the development trajectory of stablecoins meets expectations

2. Base network

· Last year, Coinbase launched Base, a new Layer 2 network based on Ethereum

· It currently ranks first among L2 networks in terms of transaction volume and total value locked

· With growth comes considerable revenue

· Base Now generating tens of millions of dollars in revenue per quarter

· This revenue is expected to grow as more developers, users, and capital enter the ecosystem

3. Staking and Custody Services

· As of the third quarter, these two businesses generated $589 million in revenue

· Up $304 million (+106%) from the same period last year

· Both businesses are driven by asset balances and net new asset inflows

· Both indicators are expected to increase significantly in 2025

· Annual revenue of these business lines is expected to exceed $1 billion

Prediction 4: 2025 will be the year of "cryptocurrency IPO" IPOs in the cryptocurrency space have been relatively quiet over the past few years. But 2025 is expected to be the year crypto unicorns go public. Why now? The backdrop for current public cryptocurrency companies is significantly different from previous years: · Rising cryptocurrency prices

· Growing investor demand

· Surge in institutional adoption

· Blockchain technology has gone mainstream

· A favorable macro environment

· Most importantly, the political environment has warmed

These factors have combined to create favorable conditions for industry giants to go public.

Top five candidates for IPO in 2025:

1. Circle

· Issuer of USDC (one of the largest stablecoins)

· Has been actively preparing for an IPO

· Has a strong position in the stablecoin market

· Is expanding into new financial services

2. Figure

· Known for using blockchain technology to provide a variety of financial services

· Provides mortgages, personal loans and asset tokenization services

· Has been exploring IPO possibilities since 2023

· As Wall Street's attention to tokenization increases, the time may be ripe

3. Kraken

· One of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges in the United States

· Considering it since 2021 IPO

· Plans postponed due to market conditions

· May regain momentum in 2025

4.Anchorage Digital

· Provides digital asset infrastructure services

· Diverse customer base, including investment advisors, asset managers and venture capital firms

· Has federally chartered banking qualifications

· Comprehensive crypto services may prompt it to seek a listing

5.Chainalysis

· Market leader in blockchain compliance and intelligence services

· Unique service offerings

· Good growth trajectory

· As the crypto industry pays more attention to compliance requirements, it is very likely to enter the public market

Prediction 5: Tokens issued by AI agents will lead to a larger meme than in 2024 Coin craze

It is expected that there will be a larger meme coin craze in 2025 than in 2024, and tokens issued by AI agents will be the leaders of this craze.

GOAT Case: The First Collision of AI and Meme Coins

A striking case comes from the interaction between Marc Andreessen of a16z and the autonomous chatbot Truth Terminal. The AI agent promoted a niche meme coin called GOAT. This project, which started as an experiment, eventually exceeded $1.3 billion in market value, fully demonstrating the huge potential of combining AI and Meme coins.

Clanker: A Pioneering AI Token Issuance Platform

Clanker, as an innovative platform, implements autonomous token deployment on Coinbase's Layer 2 scaling solution Base.

Users only need to tag Clanker on Farcaster and provide the token name and picture, and the AI agent can automatically complete the token deployment.

In just one month after going live, Clanker has issued more than 11,000 tokens, generating more than $10.3 million in fee revenue.

Future Outlook

Tokens issued by AI are expected to drive a new round of Meme coin craze in 2025. Although these tokens may lack practical application value and most may eventually return to zero, they represent the fusion of two breakthrough technologies, AI and cryptocurrency, and this innovative development direction will continue to attract market attention.

Prediction 6: The number of countries holding Bitcoin will double

Prospects for the US Strategic Reserve

Whether the United States will establish a strategic reserve of Bitcoin in 2025 remains uncertain. Although there are positive signals:

· Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming proposed a bill suggesting that the United States purchase 1 million bitcoins within five years

· President-elect Trump expressed support for the proposal

· But according to Polymarket's forecast, the possibility is less than 30%

Global Competition

· The fact that the United States is considering establishing a strategic reserve of Bitcoin has already triggered a chain reaction around the world:

· Lawmakers from Poland to Brazil have introduced bills to establish their own strategic Bitcoin reserves

· Governments are accelerating their plans to avoid missing out

Current Status and Future Outlook

According to BitcoinTreasuries.net:

· Nine countries in the world currently hold Bitcoin, with the United States in the lead

· This number is expected to double by 2025

Prediction 7: Coinbase will enter the S&P 500 and MicroStrategy will enter the Nasdaq 100

Coinbase and MicroStrategy, two major listed companies in the cryptocurrency field, will be included in mainstream stock indices, which means that almost all U.S. investors’ portfolios will gain exposure to the cryptocurrency field.

Market Status

· Ordinary U.S. investors currently have no exposure to cryptocurrencies

· As an emerging asset class, many investors either do not understand or actively choose to avoid cryptocurrencies

· But almost every investor holds a fund that tracks the S&P 500 or Nasdaq 100

· Many investors hold both types of index funds

Potential Impact

Once these two companies are included in the index, it will have a huge market impact:

· About $10 trillion in assets directly track the S&P 500

· Another $6 trillion in assets are benchmarked to the index

· Coinbase Expected inflows after inclusion: - Index funds would need to buy about $15 billion of shares - Benchmark funds could bring an additional $9 billion of buying demand MicroStrategy would have a smaller impact due to the smaller size of the Nasdaq 100 tracking funds, but it would still have a significant impact

Prediction 8: The U.S. Department of Labor will relax its guidance on cryptocurrency restrictions in 401(k) plans

In March 2022, the U.S. Department of Labor issued guidance warning 401(k) plan trustees of the significant risks of cryptocurrency investment options and announced that it would launch an investigation project to protect plan participants from these risks.

With the arrival of a new administration in Washington, the Department of Labor is expected to relax this strict guidance. The importance of this policy change can be seen from the data: · U.S. 401(k) plans currently manage $8 trillion in assets · These funds continue to receive new weekly injections · If the allocation ratio of cryptocurrencies reaches: -1%: will bring $80 billion in new funds to the cryptocurrency sector

-3%: will bring $240 billion in new funds

Prediction 9: Stablecoin assets will double to $400 billion, and the United States will pass the long-awaited stablecoin legislation

The stablecoin market will usher in a boom in 2025, with a market value of $400 billion or more. This growth will be driven by the following key factors:

Stablecoin Legislation

The lowest hanging fruit for pro-cryptocurrency policymakers in Washington is passing comprehensive stablecoin legislation. This will answer important questions, including who regulates and what the appropriate reserve requirements are. Clear regulations will spark huge interest from issuers, consumers, and businesses. Large traditional banks such as JPMorgan Chase are expected to enter this space.

Fintech Integration

Stripe acquired stablecoin platform Bridge for $1.1 billion, saying stablecoins have become "superconductors of financial services" due to their speed, accessibility, and low costs. PayPal is launching its own stablecoin (PYUSD) in 2023, and Robinhood recently announced plans to launch a global stablecoin network in partnership with several cryptocurrency companies. As stablecoins are integrated into popular fintech applications, stablecoin assets under management and trading volumes will grow significantly.

Global Trade and Remittances

Stablecoin transactions will reach $8.3 trillion in 2024, close to Visa's $9.9 trillion in payments during the same period. Stablecoin giant Tether recently financed a $45 million oil transaction with its USDT stablecoin. As the digital dollar continues to disrupt these massive markets, stablecoin demand will continue to grow.

Bull Market Growth

As the most obvious catalyst, the overall expansion of the cryptocurrency market will drive the growth of stablecoin assets under management. The cryptocurrency market is bullish in 2025, and the stablecoin market will grow accordingly.

Prediction 10: RWA tokenization will exceed $50 billion as Wall Street accelerates its entry

Three years ago, the cryptocurrency industry tokenized less than $2 billion in real-world assets (RWAs), including private credit, US debt, commodities, and stocks. Today, the market size has reached $13.7 billion.

The reason why tokenization has achieved such significant growth is mainly due to its obvious advantages: it provides instant settlement, far lower costs than traditional securitization, and 24/7 liquidity, while bringing transparency and accessibility to almost all asset classes.

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, who has gone from being a Bitcoin skeptic to a staunch supporter of tokenization, said that "security tokenization will be the next generation of the market." Coming from the head of the world's largest asset management company, this statement is significant.

Wall Street is just beginning to realize this, which means that a lot of institutional money may soon pour into the field of tokenized RWAs.

The tokenized RWA market is expected to reach $50 billion by 2025 and has the potential to grow exponentially from there.

Venture capital firm ParaFi recently predicted that the tokenized RWA market could grow to $2 trillion by 2030, while the Global Financial Markets Association predicts that it could reach $16 trillion.

Bonus Prediction: Bitcoin to Surpass $18 Trillion Gold Market in 2029, Reach $1 Million

While people tend to make one-year predictions, the longer-term outlook for Bitcoin is even more impressive.

By 2029, Bitcoin is expected to surpass the gold market in terms of market value. At gold’s current market value, that would mean a price of over $1 million per Bitcoin.

The year 2029 was chosen for a reason: Bitcoin has historically operated in four-year cycles. While that pattern won’t necessarily continue, 2029 will mark the apex of the next cycle (and Bitcoin’s 20th anniversary). Surpassing the gold market within 20 years is undoubtedly a major accomplishment, but Bitcoin is on track to do it.

It is worth noting that if the United States announces the purchase of 1 million bitcoins to build a strategic reserve, the time for the price of bitcoin to break through $1 million may be greatly advanced.

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