Bitcoin breaks through $100,000! A new milestone, a new starting point

Author: flowie, ChainCatcher

Editor: Nianqing, ChainCatcher

The New Year has come early! The prophecy has become reality, with just over 20 days until 2025, Bitcoin has surpassed $100,000, achieving a new milestone, and history is being continuously rewritten.

Since Trump was elected as the new President of the United States, Bitcoin has surged 33% from $75,000 to $100,000 in just one month. Compared to the $46,000 price after the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs at the beginning of the year, the price of Bitcoin has more than doubled.

The $100,000 historical high may also just be a new starting point for Bitcoin. In 2024, Bitcoin has created multiple histories under the combined forces of Wall Street, Trump, and others. Moreover, crypto assets, led by Bitcoin, may further bridge the gap with the mainstream world.

Creating Multiple Histories! A Review of the Milestone Moments of BTC's Historical High

The first history created by Bitcoin in 2024 began with the official mass entry of Wall Street. After a decade of tug-of-war with U.S. regulators, on January 11, 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs from traditional asset management giants like BlackRock, Fidelity, Invesco, and Grayscale were approved.

On the eve of the approval, Bitcoin had already taken off, becoming the vanguard of this bull market. On December 4, 2023, Bitcoin broke through $40,000, reaching its highest price since May 2022, and surpassed Berkshire Hathaway to re-enter the top 10 global assets by market capitalization. This was a nearly 50% increase from the $28,000 reported by crypto media Cointelegraph a month and a half earlier when they mistakenly announced the approval of BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin spot ETF.

In the month following the approval, although major institutions increased their holdings of Bitcoin spot ETFs, Grayscale's sell-off caused Bitcoin's price to dip below $40,000, raising market doubts about the effectiveness of Wall Street ETFs. It wasn't until February 13 that Bitcoin finally broke through the $50,000 mark, reaching a new high since December 2021.

But soon Wall Street proved its strength. Less than a month later, on the evening of March 5, Bitcoin's price broke through the $69,000 mark, creating the latest historical high since the first block of Bitcoin was mined in January 2009.

However, many crypto users were caught off guard when Bitcoin immediately plummeted after hitting a new high, dropping below $60,000, with over 300,000 people liquidated and $1.2 billion evaporated within 24 hours.

From March to November, Bitcoin traded sideways in the range of $53,000 to $70,000 for nearly eight months.

During this period, on April 20, Bitcoin completed its fourth halving. Trump, as a presidential candidate, continued to play the crypto card, participating in Bitcoin conferences, making promises regarding Bitcoin strategic reserves, and the September announcement of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve all brought positive news for Bitcoin's new rise.

However, the uncertainty of the election, along with the massive compensation opening in Mentougou and several governments, including Germany, reducing their BTC holdings, also prevented Bitcoin from breaking through resistance and led to multiple declines.

It wasn't until the election results became clearer that, on November 6, Trump was successfully elected, and Bitcoin began its journey of continuous historical highs. Notably, the prediction platform Polymarket, actively participated by crypto users, consistently led the polling predictions, with Bitcoin breaking through the $70,000 resistance a week before the election results and surpassing $75,000 just hours before the final results were announced.

Subsequently, Bitcoin's price surged faster than most market participants expected. In addition to the implementation of crypto easing policies in the U.S., countries like Poland mentioned Bitcoin reserve strategies, and publicly traded companies intended to emulate MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy, while the listing of Bitcoin ETF options may have provided momentum for Bitcoin's rapid growth.

On November 10, it broke through $80,000; on November 13, it broke through $90,000; and on November 22, it broke through $99,000, just a step away from $100,000.

After that, Bitcoin oscillated repeatedly below $100,000 for nearly two weeks, until today when it finally broke through $100,000, and we witness history once again!

Counting Those Bitcoin Prophets

It's hard to say when it started, but the consensus that Bitcoin would break through $100,000 by the end of the year has emerged. Before the election, institutions represented by Standard Chartered Bank and Matrixport repeatedly predicted that it would break through $100,000 by the end of the year, even reaching $125,000, seemingly providing a reference for market expectations.

In July 2023, Matrixport released a report stating that their price model indicated Bitcoin's price would soar to $125,000 by the end of 2024.

Matrixport analyst and 10X Research researcher Markus also mentioned in a media interview in February this year that based on data from the past three presidential elections, he expected Bitcoin to reach $125,000 by the end of this year or early next year. Notably, Markus also predicted that this bull market would be a Bitcoin bull market, not an altcoin bull market.

Additionally, Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick also predicted in a report released at the end of 2023 that Bitcoin would reach $100,000 by the end of 2024, and later predicted that after Trump's election, Bitcoin could rise to $125,000 by the end of 2024. However, Geoff Kendrick has also had overly optimistic moments. He stated in June this year that Bitcoin would break through $100,000 before the election.

Institutions like VanEck and ARK Invest also predicted Bitcoin would break through $100,000 by the end of the year before and after the election.

Lennix Lai, Global Chief Business Officer of OKX, eToro market analyst Josh Gilbert, SwyftX Chief Market Analyst Pav Hunda, HDI Fund Executive Partner Guy Armoni, Collective Shift CEO Ben Simpson, and independent analyst Tom Wan, among others, have all stated that Bitcoin will break through the $100,000 mark by the end of 2024.

At the end of November, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor launched a poll on social media asking, "Will Bitcoin break through $100,000 on New Year's Eve?" Currently, 59,073 users have participated in the poll, with an approval rate of 85.2%. In a recent interview, Saylor also predicted that Bitcoin would reach six figures by the end of this year, stating, "I am planning a '100K party' that may be held at my home on New Year's Eve."

At this moment, it is believed that people in the crypto circle, including Saylor, have already popped the champagne to celebrate.

What Does Bitcoin Breaking $100,000 Mean? How Much More Upside Potential Is There?

After breaking through $100,000, Bitcoin may quickly become a reserve asset contended by governments, mainstream finance, and enterprises worldwide. Zaye Capital Markets analysts have stated that under Trump's leadership, Bitcoin could become the "ultimate digital gold."

Recently, Zhao Changpeng commented on a speech by MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor, mentioning, "Countries will compete to print money to buy Bitcoin, i.e., Bitcoin strategic reserves. No one wants to be the last one."

David Bailey, former cryptocurrency assistant to Trump, believes that nation-states are about to enter the Bitcoin market and predicts that sovereign funds and central banks will invest billions of dollars monthly.

Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, stated that with U.S. debt reaching $35 trillion, if central banks adopt Bitcoin as a reserve asset, Bitcoin could reach $3 million by 2050.

Meanwhile, MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy demonstration has led to more imitators as Bitcoin continues to hit new highs. Just before the election, shareholders of the tech giant Microsoft held a preliminary vote on whether the company should invest in Bitcoin. According to recent statistics from Cointelegraph, over 60 publicly traded companies have adopted Bitcoin strategies, and thousands of private companies are also following suit.

Furthermore, from a regulatory perspective, Bitcoin's price breakthrough may prompt governments to accelerate the formulation of clear cryptocurrency regulations. Stricter regulations may increase compliance costs but also enhance market transparency, attracting larger capital inflows.

While the market is very optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term value, in the short term, with $100,000 as a key psychological level, whether the policy benefits post-election have been fully digested, and how much more upside potential Bitcoin has, especially in 2025, remains to be seen.

Currently, the market seems to remain relatively optimistic. Matrixport's latest report predicts that Bitcoin will reach $125,000 by December 2024, while Zaye Capital Markets analyst Naim Aslam stated in a report that many traders believe Bitcoin's price could reach $150,000 by the first quarter of 2025.

BCA Research believes that after Bitcoin first approached the $100,000 mark, it could still double afterward. They predict Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025. Analysts from Standard Chartered and Bernstein have also predicted that Bitcoin's price could reach as high as $200,000 by the end of 2025. PlanB, the creator of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, has boldly predicted that BTC could reach $1 million.

Swan Bitcoin analyst Sam Callahan believes that Bitcoin's price continues to be driven by a series of factors, including improved liquidity conditions, increased institutional adoption, and a shift in the regulatory environment from headwinds to tailwinds. Another term for Trump would mean larger budget deficits, potential for more inflation, and changes in the international role of the dollar—all of which would positively impact Bitcoin's price.