Arthur Hayes Podcast Transcript: Cash out when it's time to cash out, Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by the end of 2025

Compiled by: Wu Says Blockchain

In a recent interview on the podcast Alpha First, Arthur Hayes shared his bold predictions for the future of the cryptocurrency market. He believes that with the possible rise of the Trump administration, the U.S. loose monetary policy will lead to a depreciation of the dollar, which will in turn drive up the prices of Bitcoin and other crypto assets. He also discussed global inflation, the monetary policies of sovereign nations, and how to benefit from Bitcoin and other crypto assets like Memecoins. He emphasized that investors need to remain vigilant during a bull market to avoid overlooking market risks due to greed. Additionally, he forecasted that Bitcoin could reach a milestone of $250,000 by 2025.

Please note: The views of the guests do not represent those of Wu Says, and Wu Says does not endorse any products or tokens. Readers are advised to strictly comply with the laws and regulations of their location.

Listen to the full podcast (YouTube):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xONEXGRcBMU

Trump's Economic Policies Will Devalue the Dollar and Benefit Bitcoin

Dreamer: The election just ended a few weeks ago, and there have been many changes in market prices. What can we expect in the next 12 months? What vision can you share with us? What should we pay attention to in the landscape of cryptocurrency predictions?

Arthur: From my perspective, the market's predictions are correct. They expect that Trump and his new cabinet members will print a lot of money in the U.S. One of their campaign agendas is to attract manufacturing and industrial companies back to the U.S. through a weak dollar policy. Then, they will inject a large amount of funds through bank credit, increasing the credit volume in the U.S. economy to boost production and raise wage levels. All of this will lead to inflation.

The ultimate losers will be those who save in dollars or hold government bonds. Those who own fixed-supply assets like Bitcoin will perform exceptionally well. We are already seeing this trend, right?

So, I plotted some data comparing the total amount of U.S. bank credit with Bitcoin's performance. Currently, Bitcoin is clearly leading. This indicates that if Trump comes to power, his plans are already clear—weakening the dollar, stimulating the market with credit, getting people back to work, and restoring U.S. production capacity. I believe he will execute this plan.

Will Bitcoin Reach $1 Million?

Scott: I have a follow-up question about Trump. You made a bold prediction that if Trump comes to power, Bitcoin would reach $1 million. Do you still believe that everything will unfold as expected? Are you still confident?

Arthur: I am quite confident, but I'm not sure if it will happen in the short term. In fact, this trend started when Trump was elected president in 2016. At that time, he pushed for a trade war against China, and the Democrats and the Biden administration continued this policy after coming to power. So now, this confrontation has deeply penetrated American political culture.

The U.S. has shifted most of its manufacturing and production capacity to China and Asia, where these countries gain competitive advantages by weakening their currencies, which has affected American workers. Therefore, the U.S. must bring these industries back home. To achieve this, trillions of dollars in credit need to be allocated to businesses so they can profit domestically.

Biden has passed measures like the CHIPS Act, infrastructure bill, and Green New Deal, all of which require substantial funding. This trend will continue.

Global Economic Policies Will Drive Inflation Up and Benefit Crypto Assets

Dreamer: People in the crypto space are often the most disruptive group. There are many things worth discussing regarding Trump. From a domestic perspective, your views make sense and give many people optimism. But if we look internationally, how will the election affect foreign policy, wars, and trade? For Asia, some policies may bring a certain level of fear. Will these policies have a negative impact on the economy or cryptocurrencies? Or should we not worry too much?

Arthur: I think fundamentally, every country is now pursuing a "national priority" policy. The U.S. has proposed "America First," while China hopes to bring prosperity back to its rural areas or low-income groups through its "common prosperity" plan. As a result, the Chinese government has suppressed the real estate bubble and is now re-stimulating the economy through monetary easing.

Japan is experiencing capital repatriation, which will boost its economy, but it also needs more credit to prevent bank failures. Europe, on the other hand, has cut off cheap energy from Russia and turned to expensive energy imports from the U.S., putting itself in a difficult position. However, they still need to support businesses, so they will also adopt stimulus policies.

So every country is trying to take care of its own citizens, which means restoring local industries and increasing demand for goods. This trend will drive global inflation up, further suppressing the long-term outlook for bond yields.

In such an environment, cryptocurrencies will perform well. Although the policies of various countries may seem different, they are actually pursuing the same goal of prioritizing the needs of their citizens. This requires an increase in internal credit allocation and an expansion of supply to support production and create jobs. This global trend is a huge benefit for Bitcoin and other crypto assets.

Will Bitcoin's Surge Drive Other Crypto Assets?

Dreamer: It seems like this is a great opportunity for cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin. But what about other cryptocurrencies? Do you think they will be influenced by Bitcoin's surge? Are you a Bitcoin maximalist, believing that only Bitcoin has prospects while others won't follow? Or do you think other projects like Ethereum will have opportunities? For example, trends like NFTs, Memecoins, and DeFi have had their ups and downs. Will these also benefit from the market rise, or is the focus mainly on institutional investors believing that only Bitcoin will attract funds?

Arthur: I actually don't pay much attention to the movements of institutional investors because people always say they will enter the market, but they have their own complex investment logic and credit considerations, and there are reasons for buying or not buying. From the perspective of retail investors, when Bitcoin's price rises, everyone's most important asset is Bitcoin. When my wealth in Bitcoin increases, I don't want to go back to fiat currency because it doesn't make sense, right? I also won't just invest in Bitcoin. I want to invest in other crypto assets that may have larger gains than Bitcoin.

So what else can we do? We will pay attention to Memecoins, new Layer 1 blockchains, Layer 2 projects, NFTs, and the gaming sector, etc. Bitcoin leads the market, and then funds will gradually flow into other categories of assets. Because ultimately, the goal is to earn more cryptocurrencies, not to convert back to fiat. I believe fiat currency will eventually go to zero.

Scott: Yes, I think everyone will try to make quick profits and may even become somewhat addicted to this rapid growth. After all, this is one of the fastest-growing asset classes. If they profit from Bitcoin, many people won't convert back to fiat but will turn to other crypto assets that still have potential. You also mentioned that Memecoins in this cycle have surprised everyone, just like NFTs in the previous cycle. I've heard you hold some Memecoins; is this part of the market interesting to you? How are Memecoins performing in this cycle, and can they easily reach a scale of billions of dollars?

Arthur: This is indeed very interesting, and I love it. This phenomenon is both fascinating and amusing, like that Memecoin squirrel, which went from zero to $2 billion in just about nine days. Just because the U.S. government executed a squirrel, it became a $2 billion Memecoin traded globally. This phenomenon shows how quickly we can react to hot topics in global culture and make them interesting through Memecoins. Now everyone knows about this squirrel that was "executed" by the U.S. government or New York State. Thus, a Memecoin was created around it.

This is both interesting and reflective of reality. There may also be a subculture of dissatisfaction with the government, such as their inflation policies. This phenomenon also makes Memecoins a rapidly spreading attention market.

The Rapid Rise of Memecoins Demonstrates Global Cultural Responsiveness

Dreamer: We also have some "blue-chip" Memecoins, like the ones you just mentioned that are related to current events. I feel these Memecoins will have fluctuations, but we also have some Memecoins that have stabilized, like Dogecoin. Some say it will rise to $1; do you think that's possible?

Arthur: I think it's possible. It's very interesting, especially when it involves government efficiency departments or new figures like "Elon," who confirm certain things that become classic memes in themselves. I wish I had bought some back then because these memes are just too good and too interesting. Elon is an excellent meme creator, possibly one of the best meme creators in history. Although I have some doubts about his business model, he is undoubtedly a genius in meme art. So, Dogecoin could indeed reach $1.

However, I think when people start to realize how big the gap is between government propaganda and actual results, there will be a feeling of "falling from grace." People may re-examine the significance of these memes and the messages they convey. This shift will be very interesting.

Advice for Newcomers: Stay Rational and Cash Out at the Right Time During a Bull Market

Dreamer: There are now many technologies that make it easier to launch new Layer 1 blockchain projects or Memecoins. I think we will see more creativity pouring into this space, along with more specialization trends. Additionally, as you mentioned, the momentum brought by the election is also very strong. If we look back at the past, such as the rise of DeFi and NFTs, and other trends that were once hyped, the excitement at that time was very similar. So, what lessons or cautionary tales are worth sharing? Especially for those experiencing a bull market for the first time, what would you advise them to pay attention to during this process? How can they avoid repeating past mistakes in this "beautiful yet cruel world"?

Arthur: First of all, no one can profit from the market forever. Everyone knows that quick money can be made in a bull market, but the key is how to preserve those gains. For example, the Memecoins you hold now may not exist in a month or two. Their market cap could drop from $200 million to $5 million, with such drastic changes. You can't predict these things.

Some statistics show that only about 0.01% of Memecoins can exceed a market cap of $500 million, and most traders end up losing money. Many see huge gains on paper, yet they always hold onto the mindset of "I can earn more," ultimately leading to the loss of wealth they already have.

So, if you've made some money that could change your life, take some of it and cash out. The market will always present opportunities to come back. Perhaps you can take a moment to calm down, take a break, and then reassess the market. Staying rational is very important.

Are There Potential Risks or Catalysts in the Market?

Scott: In this case, it's easy for people to experience a "roller coaster" of market fluctuations. As you mentioned, some assets may disappear in a month or two. Some people indeed made life-changing money in just a few days, like the Memecoin Peanut. But even coins with a market cap of $2 billion can quickly crash. Therefore, your point is valid; one should cash out at the right time, whether it's Memecoins or Bitcoin, and gradually exit some positions. As you said, taking profits means you won't lose money.

Dreamer: Are there any "black swan events" or potential catalysts that could disrupt the market? Looking back at the past few years, such as the collapse of FTX or other unforeseen events, are there any trends or entities we need to stay vigilant about? Under the new Trump administration, has the market cleared these uncertainties and become simpler for development?

Arthur: I think many have already been cleared. Many people suffered heavy losses in the FTX, Genesis, Three Arrows, and Luna events. So now, perhaps Bitcoin has already risen to $100,000 (it might be this price when you release this interview). But in the long run, when traditional financial capital sees cryptocurrency prices rising, they will want to get involved, such as through venture capital.

Many venture capital firms have raised large amounts of money, similar to the last cycle, and they need to find big companies or important projects to invest in. In the early stages of the market, this capital is usually allocated reasonably and has good uses. But as the bull market deepens, funds may flow into certain "hot areas" because investors have to invest to get returns. In this case, we might see some business models built on the assumption of continuously rising prices, leading to risk accumulation and ultimately market imbalance.

I don't know yet which sector will experience this, but we haven't reached the "overheated" stage. Especially when traditional financial capital enters, over-investment may occur in certain areas, which is where investors need to be cautious to avoid a "shakeout" when market prices become disconnected from reality.

Dreamer: Yes, when you speak, I think about how when people have many successful trades, they become bored and crave that feeling of quick profits again. Currently, many Bitcoin Layer 2 protocols have announced yield programs, but where do these yields come from? We don't want to repeat past mistakes of promising high yields without a solid foundation. Others may seek more trends for big returns, which will gradually increase risks. So for those who experienced the last bull market, I hope they can learn from the lessons, and for newcomers, I hope they can learn from the experiences of others.

Casual Talk About Skiing

This interview has been fantastic. We really appreciate your time. Tonight, there is an IFC event—a credit competition, and I wonder if you and others have time to attend. This is a global event, and we hope to invite you to participate in the future. I believe you would enjoy such events and the influential figures in the crypto space involved in the competitions. Now I will hand the microphone to Scott to conclude this interview.

Scott: Yes, we really appreciate your time and for sitting down with us to answer these questions. It would be great to see you at the IFC. One last light question: when you’re not doing crypto-related things, what do you do? What are your hobbies? How do you relax or detach from work? Are you a foodie? Do you seek out new restaurants? Or are there other ways that keep you motivated?

Arthur: I really enjoy skiing. So I spend three to four months a year on the mountain, immersed in the snow. During the ski season, I ski for eight hours every day. Besides exercising and enjoying outdoor activities, I hardly do anything else. It makes me very happy.

Scott: What’s your favorite skiing location?

Arthur: Niseko in Japan. Their powder snow is fantastic, dry and light. It snows there every January and February; it’s simply amazing.

Scott: So you’re preparing now? Getting in shape?

Arthur: Yes, I’m preparing for skiing. However, the only downside of the ski resorts in Japan is that the slopes aren't steep enough; there aren’t those dramatically steep runs.

Dreamer: The ski resorts in Salt Lake City have lake effects. I live in Singapore now, but I used to live in the U.S. and went skiing often, though I’m a snowboarder.

Scott: Me too! Although I still ski, I prefer snowboarding. Some places are great for snowboarding.

Dreamer: Right, some places are very suitable. You also won’t encounter snowboarders "trampling" your tracks on the ski slopes.

Scott: That’s awesome! I haven’t skied in a few years, but it’s a hobby I’ve always wanted to pick up again. I’m from the Northeast U.S., grew up in New Jersey and New York, and could easily go skiing in Vermont. But I’ve lived in Houston for the past decade, so skiing isn’t as convenient anymore; it’s no longer a matter of packing up and driving a few hours to get there.

Scott: I hope you have fun in the coming time. I really want to experience the joy of skiing in Japan; I hadn’t realized there were such great skiing conditions there. I definitely need to try it out.

Bitcoin Price Predictions for Year-End and 2025

Scott: By the way, let me ask a specific question. What do you think the price of Bitcoin will be at the end of this year and around this time next year?

Arthur: I believe Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by the end of this year, and by the end of 2025, it could reach $250,000.

Scott: You heard it here first: Alpha First's prediction is that Bitcoin will hit $100,000 by the end of this year and may reach $250,000 a year later. Perhaps we’ll have the opportunity to revisit this prediction at DevCon and other events next year. I hope by then it’s not just $250,000, but even higher.