A Polymarket trader briefly mispriced the US presidential election market by buying a large number of Trump victory contracts
A trader on Polymarket briefly mispriced the market for the 2024 U.S. presidential election by purchasing a large number of Trump “win” contracts, CoinDesk reports. The trader spent more than $3 million on 4.5 million contracts in a short period of time, at one point pushing the probability of a Trump victory to 99%, much higher than the 63% that the actual market gave at the time.
The pricing anomaly was caused by Polymarket's on-chain order book mechanism. In one $275,000 order, the trader filled at 99% odds, while other orders were filled at 65.9 cents and 62.7 cents, respectively.Polymarket's dynamic order book adjusts prices with each trade, making it possible for large trades to lead to severe slippage, temporarily distorting the actual odds.
As of today, Trump has a 63% chance of winning the election on Polymarket, while Kamala Harris has a 36% chance of winning. The market has accumulated more than $2.2 billion in trading volume, making it the most heavily traded market on the platform.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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