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⑴ Six important data releases are scheduled for early Tuesday, marking the start of a busy day. First is the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. This will be followed by the Q4 Employment Cost Index, December Import and Export Prices, and December Retail Sales data, all to be released at 08:30 (UTC+8). Finally, November Business Inventories and the New York Fed's Household Debt and Credit Report will be published at 10:00 (UTC+8). ⑵ After the data releases, the market will hear from two officials: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester (voting member, hawkish) will speak on "Banking and Economic Outlook" at 12:00 (UTC+8), and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan (voting member, hawkish-leaning) will participate in a discussion at the 2026 Asset Management Derivatives Forum at 13:00 (UTC+8). ⑶ The Treasury also has a busy schedule, announcing the issuance of 4-week, 8-week, and 17-week Treasury bills at 11:00 (UTC+8), auctioning 90 billions of 6-week Treasury bills at 11:30 (UTC+8), auctioning 58 billions of 3-year Treasury notes at 13:00 (UTC+8), and conducting a buyback of up to 2 billions of 10- to 20-year coupon-bearing Treasury bonds at 14:00 (UTC+8). ⑷ The market generally expects December retail sales to continue moderate and robust growth, with total sales projected to rise 0.4% month-on-month, sales excluding autos up 0.3%, and control group sales up 0.4%. However, concerns remain about potentially fragile growth in a K-shaped economy, a sharp decline in consumer confidence indices, and data lags caused by previous government shutdowns. ⑸ The import and export price report, also affected by the government shutdown, is closely watched. December import prices are expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month, while export prices are expected to edge up 0.1%. The core import price index excluding fuel appears to be emerging from a period of weakness, having risen 0.6% cumulatively from September to November, which may indicate that the extent to which foreign producers are absorbing tariffs, or the impact of tariffs themselves, is diminishing. ⑹ The Employment Cost Index is expected to rise 0.8% quarter-on-quarter for the second consecutive quarter, with the year-on-year growth rate slowing from +3.5% to +3.4%, the lowest level since Q2 2021. The downward trend is clear but slow, and the growth rate remains higher than at any time between the global financial crisis and the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. ⑺ Business inventories are expected to grow by 0.2% in November, roughly in line with the trend. Due to the continued suspension of leading economic indicator reports following the government shutdown, and the lack of preliminary retail inventory data as a reference, inventory data may present more surprises than usual.

⑴ On Tuesday, the spot premium for Asian high-sulfur fuel oil remained steady and firm compared to last week, but the market structure showed further signs of slowing down, with the February-March spread falling to around $17 per ton. ⑵ The transaction price for ultra-low sulfur fuel oil shipped via floating storage units remained basically stable and continued to be at a discount, with prompt months maintaining a stable positive spread pattern. ⑶ In terms of crack spreads, the 380-cst high-sulfur fuel oil crack spread closed at around a $4.65 per barrel discount, while the VLSFO crack spread remained at a premium of around $4.50 per barrel. ⑷ There are ongoing tender procurement activities for low-sulfur fuel oil for April delivery, with the tender closing on Tuesday. ⑸ The spot premium for Asian diesel remains strong, with the spot spread for early March cargoes reflecting a rising premium, and the backwardation for prompt months still holding above $1. ⑹ Diesel crack spreads have remained largely unchanged, with premium levels staying below $20 per barrel. For jet fuel, the arbitrage window between Asia and the US West Coast remains closed, limiting market recovery, although the intermonth spread has slightly improved. ⑺ Gasoline crack spreads have risen to their highest level since January 21, climbing to $7.76 per barrel over Brent crude. Market sentiment suggests that, given strong demand during the holidays and Ramadan, the outlook appears robust. ⑻ The naphtha market crack spread over Brent crude rose by $4 to $103.35 per ton. ⑼ Overall, the crack spreads, spot premiums and discounts, and intermonth spread trends for different oil products have diverged, reflecting the impact of regional supply and demand fundamentals, arbitrage windows, and seasonal demand differences.

Foresight News reported that a certain exchange tweeted that bitcoin miners' reserves have dropped to approximately 1.801 million BTC, approaching historical lows, with about 6,300 BTC flowing out over the past 60 days. Miners' profitability continues to decline (reaching a historic low on February 5), further intensifying the selling pressure across the entire industry.