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BlockBeats News, April 20th. Today, the United States will officially launch the tariff refund system, involving a maximum amount of approximately $166 billion. This refund is the result of a previous court ruling that found some tariff collections were not authorized by law. Companies can apply to reclaim the paid tariffs, with the funds expected to be received 60 to 90 days after approval. This refund is mainly targeted at importers and their agents, with the initial phase only covering some eligible tariff orders (such as those not yet finally settled or within 80 days after reconciliation). According to U.S. Customs data, over 56,000 companies have already completed registration, involving a refund amount of approximately $127 billion. The market generally believes that this move will significantly ease the cash flow pressure on businesses. However, since a large amount of the previous tariff costs has already been passed on to consumers through price increases, and the policy does not require companies to refund the rebate to end-users, the actual benefits still mainly focus on the business side. It is worth noting that the issue of benefit distribution between some consumers and businesses has led to class-action lawsuits. Companies including Costco and EssilorLuxottica are facing legal challenges in an attempt to extend the refund to consumers. In addition, logistics companies such as FedEx and UPS have stated that if they paid the tariffs on behalf of customers and receive a refund, they will return the relevant amount to the clients. Overall, this policy seems more like a "capital flow tool" on the business end in the short term, rather than a direct stimulus for consumption.

BlockBeats News, April 20th, According to five sources familiar with the Bank of Japan's thinking, the Bank of Japan is unlikely to raise interest rates next week. The hope for a quick end to the Middle East conflict is fading, leaving Japan's economic and price outlook still full of uncertainty. Although the final decision still carries some uncertainty and will depend on the progress of U.S.-Iran peace talks, the sources mentioned above stated that the central bank is inclined to maintain the status quo this month to allow more time to assess the impact of the conflict. One of the sources stated: "Given the current level of uncertainty, the Bank of Japan may see maintaining the status quo this month as viable." Another source expressed a similar view. A third individual stated that the Bank of Japan is unlikely to raise interest rates because the market has already fully priced in the possibility of no rate hike this month. These sources mentioned that even if the Bank of Japan keeps rates unchanged next week, due to the escalating inflationary pressures, the bank is likely to signal readiness to raise rates as early as June. (Kyodo)

Golden Ten Data reported on April 20 that Commerzbank stated that in the long term, the euro could appreciate against the US dollar because the European Central Bank has greater flexibility than the Federal Reserve in addressing higher inflation. “In the long run, the key is not which central bank raises interest rates faster or by a larger margin, but which central bank manages to successfully control inflation.” She pointed out that due to a significant increase in import tariffs, the US core inflation rate is higher than that of the eurozone. However, pressure from the Trump administration on the Federal Reserve makes it difficult for the Fed to respond adequately to inflation shocks.