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Golden Ten Data, April 9 — “Federal Reserve mouthpiece” Nick Timiraos: The Federal Reserve meeting minutes show that a “vast majority” of officials believe the pace of easing inflation may be slower than expected, mainly due to three interrelated concerns: the impact of tariffs on goods prices may take longer to dissipate; the pass-through effect of oil prices on core inflation; and several years of inflation rates above the target level, making inflation expectations more susceptible to a new round of shocks.

On April 9, Federal Reserve officials weighed different scenarios for the U.S. economy following the outbreak of the Iran war, including situations that may require both interest rate cuts and increases. The minutes from the March FOMC meeting, released on Wednesday, revealed that most officials are concerned that the war could impact the labor market, necessitating a reduction in interest rates. At the same time, many officials emphasized inflation risks, which could ultimately require an increase in rates. The minutes indicated that an increasing number of officials suggested incorporating relevant language into the post-meeting statement to mention the possibility of rate hikes under specific conditions. The minutes stated: 'Some participants believe there is ample reason to provide a two-way description of future rate decisions in the post-meeting statement, reflecting that an increase in the target rate range may be appropriate if inflation remains persistently above the target level.' Following the March meeting, several Fed policymakers expressed a preference to maintain interest rates unchanged while assessing the impact of the war. Overall, policymakers' responses to the war reflect concerns about the dual risks associated with their dual mandate. The minutes noted: 'The vast majority of participants believe that both inflationary and employment downside risks are elevated, with most participants pointing out that these risks have increased with the developments in the Middle East.' At the March meeting, Federal Reserve officials maintained the benchmark policy rate in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%.