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Odaily reported that 10x Research released its latest analysis, pointing out that the current bitcoin trend needs to distinguish between short-term tactical structure and medium-term trend context. The report stated that although some trading opportunities are emerging, the market still needs to comprehensively evaluate the risk-reward ratio based on positions, volatility, ETF capital flows, and technical indicators, in order to avoid misjudging a temporary rebound as a trend reversal. The report also mentioned that its previous trading strategy around Circle achieved approximately 55% returns within 10 days. 10x Research indicated that it will judge whether the current trend is a bottom-building process or a rebound in a larger adjustment phase through derivatives positions, volatility structure, and capital flow data.

格隆汇 March 3｜Bloomberg, citing sources, reported that U.S. officials are considering limiting the number of Nvidia AI accelerators exported to individual Chinese companies. They have discussed setting a cap of 75,000 Nvidia H200 chips per Chinese enterprise, and shipments of AMD’s MI325 chips, which have similar functions, would also count toward the customer’s quota. These types of chips are highly sought after in the tech industry, mainly used for developing and running AI models. According to sources, the total shipments to China could still reach 1 million units, which is the upper limit previously set by the Trump administration during regulatory processes. However, most applications are currently concentrated among a few major Chinese tech giants. If the proposed per-customer purchase cap is implemented, these companies combined would only be able to obtain several hundred thousand chips at most. The 75,000-unit cap per customer is less than half of the purchase intentions some large tech firms have privately expressed to Nvidia. Nvidia stated last week that it still has no revenue from Chinese data centers, and even if U.S. authorities approve exports, it is unclear whether China will allow imports. So far, Washington has only approved a limited number of H200 chip exports.

Jinse Finance reported that in the early trading session, the main contracts of SC crude oil and fuel oil both hit the daily limit up at opening. According to a research report by Chuangyuan Futures, the core driver of the surge is geopolitical factors. In early February, US-Iran nuclear talks began, and while the US pursued diplomatic mediation, it also increased military deployment and economic sanctions. The accumulation of geopolitical risks injected about $5 premium into oil prices. Last Thursday, the third round of US-Iran nuclear talks failed again on nuclear issues. On the 28th, the US and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran, and Iran immediately announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The US-Iran situation shifted from high-pressure confrontation to substantive conflict, with risk aversion and supply panic overlapping, significantly expanding oil price volatility. In the short term, the situation remains unclear. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the conflict and the degree of actual supply disruption, with oil prices maintaining a high and highly volatile state. The turning point lies in "expectations being disproved," meaning that once the conflict de-escalates or the strait blockade does not materialize, the previously priced-in risk premium will be quickly reversed. In the long term, although the geopolitical weight has risen significantly, the fundamentals of supply surplus remain unchanged, so after the disturbance, oil prices still face pressure to return to the central level.