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Golden Ten Data reported on April 30 that the European Central Bank has kept its three main interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. This marks the seventh consecutive meeting where the bank has held rates steady. The deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and marginal lending rate remain unchanged at 2%, 2.15%, and 2.40% respectively.

Odaily reports that Hyperliquid Policy Center (HPC) has officially submitted a comment letter regarding the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) advance notice of proposed rulemaking (ANPRM) on prediction markets. The letter advocates for a clear compliance path for decentralized prediction markets based on public, permissionless blockchains while refining the regulatory framework for centralized prediction markets. In its comment letter, HPC urges the CFTC to adopt more flexible, function-oriented rules to accommodate decentralized market structures; to establish clear legal channels for US market participants to access decentralized prediction markets; and to promote the United States' continued leadership in decentralized financial innovation. HPC states that prediction markets are a natural extension of the federal derivatives framework, enabling participants to directly manage economic risk exposure to real-world events and aggregate dispersed information through continuously updated market prices. The price discovery capabilities of such markets have been widely validated, even surpassing traditional opinion polls and expert forecasts. HPC points out that decentralized prediction markets based on public blockchains offer advantages such as transparency, non-custodial operation, and high resilience. They do not rely on centralized operators holding user funds, nor do they present single points of failure. All transactions are recorded in real time on public ledgers, facilitating regulatory and market oversight, with market access standards more transparent and unified. HPC emphasizes that current rulemaking should not entrench reliance on single exchange operators, custodian intermediaries, or traditional settlement monitoring mechanisms, as this would hinder lawful participation of US users in decentralized prediction markets. HPC states it will continue promoting compliant access to Hyperliquid and HIP-4 outcome markets for US market participants and maintain ongoing communication with the CFTC.

According to Odaily, a new report from the non-profit research organization Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) indicates that the prediction market platform Polymarket may be facing more widespread insider trading issues than previously known, such as those found in the “Green Beret Bet on the Venezuela Raid” incident. After analyzing 435,000 settled markets and $54.4 billion in total trading volume from January 2021 to mid-March 2026, the study found that low-probability bets in markets related to government decisions, such as military and defense, had abnormally high win rates. Data shows that the average success rate for such “long-shot bets” in political markets is around 14%, while in certain military-related contracts, the success rate exceeds 50%. The research suggests that it is difficult to predict outcomes in these markets based solely on public information, making them more susceptible to the effects of information asymmetry, including insider trading or professional informational advantages. The report also notes that profits on Polymarket are highly concentrated. Research from London Business School and Yale University shows that about 3% of traders contribute the majority of the platform’s price discovery; blockchain analytics company Solidus Labs found that less than 1% of wallets captured around half of all profits. For example, in the June 2025 US airstrike on Iran, in the few hours preceding the strike, 19 low-probability bets totaling $164,000 were concentrated into “YES” contracts that ultimately paid out. Eight wallets made a total profit of around $1.8 million, with nearly $500,000 gained by a single wallet. Although the Pentagon deliberately concealed the operation with decoy bombers and long-range stealth jets, a small number of traders still managed to accurately bet on the outcome. ACDC recommends that Polymarket should strengthen identity verification, set conditional payouts for suspicious bets, limit markets where outcomes are decided by a small group, and reduce overly granular contract designs. The report further calls for broader discussion about whether the public should be able to bet on such events.