Markets aren’t buying Trump’s 50% EU tariff threat
European investors didn’t blink when Trump declared he was “recommending” a 50% tariff on every single import coming from the European Union, a threat he dropped Friday on Truth Social, right before US and EU officials were set to meet.
The Stoxx Europe 600 index closed down just 1%, shaking off the news like a mild cold. That’s a soft reaction compared to the sharp losses—between 2.5% and 5%—markets suffered back in April when Trump posted similar threats during what he called “Liberation Day.”
According to CNBC, most analysts think this latest escalation isn’t a policy ready to launch, but a negotiating bomb designed to scare Brussels into giving Washington more ground in upcoming talks.
The language Trump used and the timing of his post both fueled that theory. He didn’t say the US would impose the tariff. He said he was recommending it. There’s a difference, and Ajay Rajadhyaksha, global chair of research at Barclays, pointed it out.
“We believe that this morning’s social media posts about a 50% tariff on the EU are primarily a negotiating tactic,” Ajay wrote to clients. He also said “we are guessing here—as is everyone else—but we remain of the belief that the 50% tariff on all EU goods on June 1 won’t actually go ahead.”
Even so, Ajay admitted the final number could still surprise markets. He had earlier forecasted 14% to 17% average tariffs. Now, he says that was probably too low. “The EU will not end up with 50%, we think, but it now seems the continent could end up with (say) 20%,” he said.
Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist at Capital Economics, said something similar. He called the 50% tariff “very unlikely to be where tariffs settle over the long run,” and made it clear the risk wasn’t zero. Andrew warned that if the full tariff ever happened, Germany’s GDP could shrink by 1.7% in just three years.
And if the tax hit the pharmaceutical sector, Ireland might be worse off. He still expects tariffs to land around 10%, but said the road to a final deal “could be rocky.”
The math on the US side is just as bad. The United States brought in $606 billion in European goods last year. If Trump hit all of it with a 50% tax, the direct cost would land at $300 billion. Ajay ran the numbers and said that about 60% of the cost would fall on US buyers.
That’s $180 billion that American consumers, not European firms, would pay. Ajay pointed to the 2018 trade war with China. “The US arguably saw this coming in the case of China and decided that it was too high a price to pay,” he said. “We think it unlikely that the US will be willing to risk a repeat, and this time with its largest trading partner.”
Europe isn’t just standing around. Inga Fechner, senior economist at ING, said the EU has already drafted retaliatory tariffs , and they’re scheduled to hit on July 14 if the White House pushes forward. Inga called Trump’s play “a prelude to negotiation,” similar to how he acted before announcing a short-lived deal with China earlier in May. But if talks collapse, Brussels has more than just tariffs ready.
Inga warned the EU might tighten regulations on US tech, stall new licenses, block public procurement, and limit investment and IP access using the Anti-Coercion Instrument. And she said if Trump follows through, it could drag the eurozone’s GDP down by 0.6 percentage points, enough to push the bloc close to recession.
Salomon Fiedler, an economist with Berenberg, said both sides would take heavy hits if the 50% tariff becomes real. He also said the added cost pressure could extend high interest rates in the US, because the Federal Reserve might delay any cuts.
“Given the damage the US would do to itself with this tariff, he will probably not follow through,” Salomon added. But he said the threat itself was enough to lock in Trump’s 10% baseline tariff, which he’d already slapped on almost every trade partner.
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Operation RapTor Smashes Global Darknet Drug Rings, Nabs 270 Suspects In Major Fentanyl Sting
Global authorities just delivered a major hit to the darknet drug trade. A sprawling law enforcement crackdown, dubbed Operation RapTor , zeroed in on illicit fentanyl and opioid sales across online black markets, leading to the arrest of 270 individuals worldwide. The coordinated sting also pulled in more than $200 million in cash and digital assets
This massive undertaking stretched across four continents, with investigators working together in countries like the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Brazil, and South Korea. Officials announced they recovered over two metric tons of drugs, a haul that included a hefty 144 kilograms of fentanyl or fentanyl-laced substances, alongside some 180 firearms.
The U.S. Department of Justice’s Joint Criminal Opioid and Darknet Enforcement (JCODE) team spearheaded this international initiative, teaming up closely with Europol and numerous law enforcement agencies throughout Europe, Asia, and South America. Officials are calling Operation RapTor the most successful JCODE effort yet, both in terms of the sheer amount of contraband seized and the number of suspects apprehended.
A smart play in the operation involved using intelligence gathered from previous darknet marketplace shutdowns. Data from dismantled sites like Nemesis, Tor2Door, Bohemia, and Kingdom Markets gave authorities crucial leads, helping them identify and track down darknet vendors and their customers across the globe.
Word of successful prosecutions tied to Operation RapTor is already coming in from multiple U.S. federal districts. Down in California, two men were handed stiff prison sentences of 17 and 15 years for peddling fentanyl-laced pills to over 1,000 people through darknet sites.
The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York also landed a key conviction, securing a guilty plea from Rui-Siang Lin. Lin was the operator of Incognito Market, a major darknet hub that, between 2020 and 2024, handled over $100 million in illicit drug sales.
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Over in Virginia, three darknet vendors got their due for pushing more than 13,000 drug shipments all over the U.S. They were caught distributing counterfeit Adderall which actually contained methamphetamine. When federal agents moved in, they seized $330,000 in cash, industrial pill press machines, and nearly 110,000 fake pills.
In another significant case, Brian McDonald of California copped a 20-year sentence after admitting he used various darknet aliases to sling fentanyl and cocaine nationwide. Tragically, investigators linked at least one confirmed overdose death directly to his operation.
The far-reaching success of Operation RapTor hinged on extensive cooperation between numerous agencies and international partners. In the U.S., crucial support came from the DEA, FBI, IRS-CI, HSI, USPIS, and the FDA OCI. On the international front, Europol and national police forces across ten countries were vital to the effort.
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Adding another layer of pressure, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) also slapped sanctions on Iranian national Behrouz Parsarad, identified as the operator of the Nemesis marketplace.
Federal authorities reported that 26 different U.S. Attorneys’ Offices were involved in related prosecutions. They hailed Operation RapTor as a major leap forward in tackling sophisticated criminal outfits that try to hide their fentanyl and opioid sales under the veil of dark web anonymity.
Disclaimer: The information presented in this article is for informational and educational purposes only. The article does not constitute financial advice or advice of any kind. Coin Edition is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of the utilization of content, products, or services mentioned. Readers are advised to exercise caution before taking any action related to the company.