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Here are 3 possible scenarios—bullish, neutral, and bearish—for Shardeum ($SHM based on its current fundamentals, tokenomics, and market behavior: --- 1. Bullish Scenario: $SHM Rallies Strongly Drivers: Successful adoption of Shardeum's dynamic state sharding, improving scalability and lowering gas fees. Major exchange listings (e.g., Bitfinex on May 13) bring in institutional interest and boost visibility. Growth of dApps and developer activity on the Shardeum ecosystem. Outcome: SHM breaks past its previous all-time high ($0.3578), targeting $0.45–$0.60 short term. Increased staking reduces circulating supply, adding upward pressure on price. --- 2. Neutral Scenario: Gradual Ecosystem Growth Drivers: Slow but steady adoption of the chain, with minor dApp launches and modest community growth. Token inflation is managed, but user activity is moderate. Outcome: SHM consolidates between $0.18–$0.30 for months. Investors accumulate gradually, waiting for a breakout. --- 3. Bearish Scenario: Sell-off or Ecosystem Struggles Drivers: Technical issues with sharding implementation or underwhelming developer interest. Broad crypto market downturn or lack of differentiators from other L1s (e.g., Aptos, Sui). Outcome: $SHM retraces toward $0.12–$0.15, possibly even lower. Airdrop recipients and early holders take profits, increasing sell pressure.

From a purely technical standpoint, $SHM is currently navigating bearish terrain. According to my analysis here on Bitget , a total of 15 indicators are signaling Sells with only 3 suggesting a ‘Buy’ and 7 remaining neutral. This weight of evidence leans heavily against bullish momentum and suggests that bears currently dominate the market narrative. Two major classes of indicators are essential in understanding this bearish inclination: oscillators and moving averages. Oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stand at 17.89, placing $SHM firmly in the oversold category. While traditionally seen as a potential for reversal, this deep level reflects strong selling pressure creating balance and open way for new buyers The Average Directional Index (ADX) is notably high at 66.35, indicating not just a trend but a strong trend—unfortunately, in this case, a bearish one. Meanwhile, Moving Averages, spanning short to long terms (10- to 200-period EMAs and SMAs), all broadcast ‘Sell’ signals, confirming that the decline is not a short-term hiccup but a consistent downward slope.

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Everyone’s staring at Bitcoin like it’s going to save them. Here’s the bitter truth: It won’t. Not yet. The real money right now? It’s hiding in plain sight inside mid-cap altcoins, range-bound whales, and AI micro narratives no one wants to touch. 1. BTC/USDT$BTC Technical Snapshot (as of May 12, 2025): Price: ~$104,045 RSI: Neutral (52) – neither overheated nor discounted. 200 EMA: Flatlining – confirming sideways consolidation. Volume: Drying up. Smart money isn’t rushing. Retail is sleeping. Translation: The king is chilling. No trend = no greed = boredom. That’s your signal. 2. Altcoin Sentiment Shift (The Silent Bleed): While Bitcoin plays dead, altcoins are bleeding 5–20% weekly, and you’re ignoring it. Here’s the twist: Layer 2s are undervalued (Arbitrum, Optimism) Gaming tokens are oversold but primed (GALA, RONIN) AI projects are rotating funds (AGIX, FET, RNDR — consolidation = accumulation) Strategy: Enter during panic, exit during FOMO. This is the panic phase. Be the one buying their fear. 3. Fundamental Catalysts Lurking in the Shadows: ETH ETF Approval Rumors (Q2-Q3 2025): If it drops, DeFi and L2s will explode. US Fed Pivot Talks: Any hint of rate cuts = massive capital inflow to risk assets. Pakistan/India Youth Crypto Surge: Binance and Bitget are both seeing major wallet inflow from South Asia. Geo-hype matters. Be early on the wave 4. Trade Setup of the Week:RNDR /USDT Current Price: ~$5.20 Entry: $5.10–$5.30 Stop-Loss: $4.95 Take Profit 1: $6.00 Take Profit 2: $7.00 Reason: Hidden bullish divergence + whale absorption zone. 5. The Psychological Edge: Everyone says “DYOR”, but 90% of you scroll Twitter for signals. Real alpha is found in three places: 1. Low-timeframe emotional panic 2. On-chain data (whale wallets, dormant tokens waking) 3. Narratives BEFORE they trend “Retail follows trends. Experts create them.” Be the spark—not the smoke. Follow me for: Weekly scalp setups Macro market breakdowns Savage truths and no-simp psychology #Crypto #Bitget Altcoins #RNDR #Bitcoin #ETHETF #TechnicalAnalysis #AINarratives #PakistanCrypto #CryptoPsychology

Long-dated Treasurys are falling out of favor fast. Since April 2, the 10-year yield jumped to 4.37% as bond prices dropped, even though shorter-term yields went the other way. That divide—what Wall Street calls a steepening twist—came as markets were still reacting to President Donald Trump’s tariff moves, which triggered chaos earlier in April. This twist has already started raising borrowing costs across the economy. The Federal Reserve may plan to cut rates to boost growth, but long-term yields don’t seem to care anymore. They’ve disconnected from the usual relationship with short-term rate expectations. That’s a major red flag for policymakers trying to keep credit flowing. One of the key reasons for the spike in long-dated Treasurys is fear—mostly about inflation and policy direction. Trump’s unpredictable trade policies have clouded investor expectations. While many think inflation will cool down in the coming years, they’re not betting on it with full confidence. To protect themselves, they want a higher return for holding long-term debt. That extra return is called a term premium, and it’s been on the rise. “The bond market is reflecting uncertainty about where this economy is heading and still lingering uncertainty about what the policy landscape will ultimately be,” said Tim Ng, a fixed-income portfolio manager at Capital Group. Another concern is the federal budget deficit. Investors are worried the government will keep pumping out more bonds to cover its shortfall, which will keep dragging down prices. Republicans in both chambers have been trying to push tax-cut bills, but there’s no clear plan for spending cuts to balance it out. That makes investors even more cautious. Even if the U.S. hits a recession and the Fed slashes rates, there’s concern that long-term yields might stay stubborn. That would screw over mortgage borrowers and anyone trying to take out large loans. The average 30-year mortgage rate last week hit 6.8%, up from last month, Freddie Mac reported. Term premium isn’t easy to calculate, but most models say it’s been trending up since 2021 when inflation returned after years of absence. It rose again after Trump got re-elected in November. Investors expected his policies to fuel higher deficits and inflation. Then his tariff announcement caused a broad market selloff, including in Treasurys. The administration later eased up on some trade policies, and yields fell slightly, but term premium is still elevated. Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report that it’ll be hard “to undo the reset in term premia,” adding that the “underlying macro uncertainty…likely won’t simply resolve with shifts in rhetoric.” Some argue the economy can survive higher term premiums—it did in the 80s and 90s—but others say the Fed is flying blind. Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, said last week the central bank isn’t in a hurry to cut rates. He said the economy’s still holding up but warned inflation risks haven’t gone away. “They’re really trying to establish their inflation-fighting credibility and keep that credibility,” said Chris Brown, who runs securitized products at T. Rowe Price. The Treasury Department has started reacting. In 2023, officials began raising the size of long-term bond auctions to cover more borrowing. But when yields surged, they slowed those increases to calm things down. During his campaign, Scott Bessent—now Treasury Secretary—blasted the department for not issuing enough long-term debt. But since taking office, he’s changed course. He’s now saying he has no plans to tweak auction sizes in the near future. KEY Difference Wire helps crypto brands break through and dominate headlines fast