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1/5 🇯🇵 Japan's 30Y Bond Yield Hits 20-Year High 📈 2.345%—the highest since 2004 📉 Bearish for Bitcoin & risk assets 🔁 Yen carry trade unwind could drain liquidity from global markets ““With the bond yield jumping 2.345% to its highest level in 30 years, more risk-averse

2/5 📊 Chart of the Day: Japan 30Y Bond Yield

The often mentioned reason behind the sell-off of U.S. Treasuries is the closing of “basis trades” Felipe Villarroel, portfolio management partner at TwentyFour Asset Management, said in a note that after speaking with government bond trading desks, TwentyFour did not find a clear answer to what caused the sell-off in Treasuries. "The most common reason was the unwinding of 'basis trades,'" he explained, which involves traders having to sell Treasuries to meet margin calls on leveraged positions. The purpose of leveraged positions is to arbitrage the tiny price spreads between Treasuries and Treasury futures or interest rate swaps. The huge volumes involved set off a chain reaction, and suddenly many bonds needed a new home, and buyers were too nervous to catch the falling knife in the most volatile week in recent memory. (Jinshi)

QCP: Long-term sentiment in the crypto market is becoming more positive, and Bitcoin may continue to move sideways in the near term QCP said in a post that after a week of tariff brinkmanship, risk assets have begun to stabilize, shaking off barriers that could have dealt a heavy blow to Sino-US trade. The United States imposed tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese imports, and China hit back with 125%, escalating the two sides to the point where the market is no longer surprised by further increases. The huge scale of these tariffs makes them more symbolic than market-driven, in stark contrast to the panic caused in the early days of "Liberation Day". After the close of Friday, the Trump administration quietly exempted smartphones, computers and chips from the latest tariffs. Despite the ongoing stalemate, risk assets are pricing in optimism, even as the United States seems to be negotiating not only with China, but also with the bond market and itself. In the crypto market, Bitcoin risk reversals still favor put options until June, indicating that the market is still slightly cautious in the short term. However, long-term sentiment is becoming more positive. On Saturday, we observed aggressive buying of 800 lots of BTC-27MAR26-100k-C. Bitcoin continues to consolidate in the $80,000 to $90,000 range and may continue to move sideways, adopting a “wait and see” strategy to see how the tariff situation develops.

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