Market Breathes, Bitcoin Leads: A Sideways Rally for ETH and TON

This past week felt like crypto exhaled – not a full relief rally, but enough to shake off the sense of doom that’s been clinging to the charts since early April. Macro didn’t so much flip bullish as it stopped swinging a bat. Bitcoin leads the way, as usual. Ethereum tried to keep up but didn’t quite get there. TON stayed flat, though its ecosystem quietly kept expanding. If this week was a mood, it’d be cautious optimism with a side of RSI divergence. So let’s dig in: who moved, who didn’t, and why it matters.

Bitcoin

It all started with a surprise pause – Trump quietly shelved tariffs on certain tech imports. Nothing flashy, but enough to ease tension across risk assets. 

Source: Donald Trump

Then came a softer PPI print, just dovish enough to spook the dollar into a three-year low. By the time markets processed both, the narrative had already shifted: maybe the Fed isn’t cornered after all. Maybe there’s still some 

US PPI for final demand. Source: BLS

Bitcoin caught the scent early. It punched through $74K and kept climbing, brushing $86K before cooling off near $83,400. That wasn’t just momentum – it was opportunity meeting lowered resistance. As we know, when the dollar trips, Bitcoin stretches its legs.

BTC/USD 4H Chart, Coinbase. Source: TradingView

The 4H RSI has cooled from overbought, which means we could chop sideways, bait a few breakout traders, maybe even fake a flush. But as long as macro holds steady and flows keep coming in, the path of least resistance still points up.

Arthur Hayes

You could almost feel the mood swing. ETF outflows slowed, while whale wallets started buying. Meanwhile, retail sentiment was hitting peak doomscroll. Arthur Hayes chimed in with his usual mix of chaos and clarity, suggesting this might be the launchpad for $100K. Maybe. The technicals don’t rule it out – structurally, it’s there. But volatility has to behave, and lately, that’s been like asking a raccoon to sit still in a bakery.

Ethereum

Meamwhile, Ethereum tried to keep pace, but let’s be honest – it was jogging while Bitcoin sprinted. From a low near $1,360 to a high around $1,680, ETH now sits in the $1,580s.

ETH/USD 4H Chart, Coinbase. Source: TradingView

It was what traders call a “shadow rally” – ETH rising in Bitcoin’s wake but not driving its own narrative. The ETH/BTC ratio kept bleeding lower, which tells you exactly where the capital’s loyalty lies. Right now, nobody’s rotating out of BTC into majors. Why trade the apprentice when the wizard’s casting spells?

ETH/BTC profitable days. Source: James Check

SEC approved Ether ETF options gave ETH a little push, sure. But it wasn’t the headline traders really wanted – that would be a greenlight for staking-based ETFs, the ones that tap into Ethereum’s actual economics. Without that, there’s no new capital unlock, no structural shift. Just noise.

So, technically, ETH is drifting. It’s trading near the 50-day SMA, RSI stuck in the middle. Whether it breaks out or fades back will depend on one thing: Bitcoin.

Toncoin (TON)

TON’s been doing its best impression of a metronome – bouncing between $2.80 and $3.20, stuck in that tight sideways range with the conviction of a coin flip. Right now it’s hanging near $2.82, hugging the low end like it’s waiting for someone to make the first move.

TON/USD 4H Chart, Coinbase. Source: TradingView

But price action isn’t the whole story. Under the surface, TON’s been laying track. The team just dropped a beta for the TON Payment Network – a Layer 2 built for instant, low-cost payments, already running through TON Proxy. Think microtransactions, live tips, in-game rewards. Not the kind of stuff that grabs headlines, but the kind that builds foundations.

Source: Github

Meanwhile, @wallet is getting ready for its U.S. rollout, and Telegram – ever so quietly – has started tagging verified channels. It’s a soft move, but one that adds a layer of legitimacy to an ecosystem that’s often had to operate with one eye on the regulators.

But here’s the rub: none of it’s priced in. RSI is still weak. The 50-SMA keeps acting like a ceiling. No volume surge, no breakout. Traders haven’t re-rated it yet, maybe because they’ve seen too many flashy roadmaps with too little stickiness. Real adoption – not just technical releases – is what moves the needle now.

Summing Up: What’s The Outlook This Week?

Bitcoin’s still the axis the market spins around – and this week, macro helped it turn. With tariffs paused and inflation softening, risk appetite found just enough breathing room. Bitcoin took the lead. Ethereum tagged along, but hasn’t broken character. TON? It’s building a case, but the jury’s still out.

What happens next hinges on stability. If the dollar stays soft, if the Fed doesn’t spook the herd, there’s room for capital to rotate into lagging alts. But if volatility returns – if policy throws a curveball or macro sentiment buckles – Bitcoin likely tightens its grip while ETH and TON stay in the waiting room, flipping through old magazines.